FXUS63 KFGF 200447

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a medium to high chance for dense fog during the

  evening into morning hours for the next several days. However,

  confidence in location and duration of fog is low.



- A quick moving system this weekend brings a 20% chance for

  advisory level winter impacts.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...Synopsis...



Northwest flow aloft continues over the Northern Plains as

strong upper ridging builds over the Desert Southwest. A weak

shortwave will dig down out of Canada tonight into tomorrow

morning, and a few of the CAMs such as the HRRR and RAP bring a

few light showers down into the northern Red River Valley. 

Can't completely rule out some light rain or snow showers

reaching the ground in our north, but impacts look minimal at

this point. Another shortwave digs down from Manitoba and

Ontario into the Upper Midwest Friday night and Saturday, which

should push a cold front down into the Northern Plains. Some

mixed precipitation coming along with this frontal passage could

bring advisory level impacts for the weekend. Northwesterly flow

returns for the starts of the work week, with another weak

embedded shortwave possible. Some of the ensemble members make

flow more zonal ahead of another trough moving through late

Wednesday into Thursday, but predictability still low at this

point. 



...Fog possible tonight...



Area of stratus and 1 to 2 miles of fog continues across the

Northern Red River Valley. Think this area should dissipate for

a time this afternoon and evening as surface low pressure over

southern Saskatchewan moves southeast and winds shift to the

northwest behind it. Another weak high pressure center follows

quickly behind it, so winds will again go light and variable and

with another warm day with plenty of melting, fog will again be

a concern. High resolution models don't have any consensus on 

where fog develops, and ensemble probabilities have a fairly 

broad area of 50 to 70 percent. Previous shift had entire area 

under patchy fog, and see little reason to change that at this 

point. Will continue to monitor to watch for any dense fog 

development. 



...Mixed precipitation this weekend...



With colder air pushing down from the north this weekend, and

another weak shortwave moving through the northwesterly flow,

there is the chance for some rain showers, or even a bit of 

freezing rain or snow Friday night into Saturday. Model

soundings have a mix at HCO, but amounts look very light at this

point. HREF probabilities of over a hundredth of freezing rain

are only 30 to 40 percent in a small area of northeastern ND,

and NBM probs are even lower. There isn't a strong signal from

the ECMWF EHI for a lot of precipitation, and the probabilistic

WSSI has around 20 percent in our northern counties. At this

time, think that advisory level impacts are not terribly likely,

but not out of the question either. Will keep the 20 percent

going and mention in the forecast, but no stronger messaging.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



There are a few small pockets of fog in northwest MN (one just

east of KFAR), otherwise most locations start the TAF period

VFR. Northwest winds have arrived behind a weak cold front that

is expected to stall, and with ample low level moisture from

snow melt and weak CAA there is an increased signal for

fog/stratus over the next 24hr as surface high pressure moves

into the region and winds become light and variable. There is 

already stratus and fog in southeast Manitoba which short range

guidance shows this moving south near and east of the Red River

Valley through northwest MN after 07-10Z. Confidence is

increasing in at least a period of IFR impacts Friday morning,

with MVFR ceilings across much of eastern ND and northwest MN.

This is shown to lingering over parts of the region through the

TAF period, with improvements in visibility as daytime mixing

increases. However, predictability of LIFR/VLIFR visibility 

remains low as coverage/duration could be much more variable.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JR

AVIATION...DJR