FXUS63 KFGF 192340

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

640 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a medium to high chance for dense fog during the

  evening into morning hours for the next several days. However,

  confidence in location and duration of fog is low.



- A quick moving system this weekend brings a 20% chance for

  advisory level winter impacts.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...Synopsis...



Northwest flow aloft continues over the Northern Plains as

strong upper ridging builds over the Desert Southwest. A weak

shortwave will dig down out of Canada tonight into tomorrow

morning, and a few of the CAMs such as the HRRR and RAP bring a

few light showers down into the northern Red River Valley. 

Can't completely rule out some light rain or snow showers

reaching the ground in our north, but impacts look minimal at

this point. Another shortwave digs down from Manitoba and

Ontario into the Upper Midwest Friday night and Saturday, which

should push a cold front down into the Northern Plains. Some

mixed precipitation coming along with this frontal passage could

bring advisory level impacts for the weekend. Northwesterly flow

returns for the starts of the work week, with another weak

embedded shortwave possible. Some of the ensemble members make

flow more zonal ahead of another trough moving through late

Wednesday into Thursday, but predictability still low at this

point. 



...Fog possible tonight...



Area of stratus and 1 to 2 miles of fog continues across the

Northern Red River Valley. Think this area should dissipate for

a time this afternoon and evening as surface low pressure over

southern Saskatchewan moves southeast and winds shift to the

northwest behind it. Another weak high pressure center follows

quickly behind it, so winds will again go light and variable and

with another warm day with plenty of melting, fog will again be

a concern. High resolution models don't have any consensus on 

where fog develops, and ensemble probabilities have a fairly 

broad area of 50 to 70 percent. Previous shift had entire area 

under patchy fog, and see little reason to change that at this 

point. Will continue to monitor to watch for any dense fog 

development. 



...Mixed precipitation this weekend...



With colder air pushing down from the north this weekend, and

another weak shortwave moving through the northwesterly flow,

there is the chance for some rain showers, or even a bit of 

freezing rain or snow Friday night into Saturday. Model

soundings have a mix at HCO, but amounts look very light at this

point. HREF probabilities of over a hundredth of freezing rain

are only 30 to 40 percent in a small area of northeastern ND,

and NBM probs are even lower. There isn't a strong signal from

the ECMWF EHI for a lot of precipitation, and the probabilistic

WSSI has around 20 percent in our northern counties. At this

time, think that advisory level impacts are not terribly likely,

but not out of the question either. Will keep the 20 percent

going and mention in the forecast, but no stronger messaging.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Early in the TAF period there are lingering pockets of for in

the far northern Red River Valley, however the general trend 

has been for VFR conditions to prevail across the rest of 

eastern ND and northwest MN. SOutherly flow at the surface, with

increasing westerly flow aloft as a LLJ builds east along with a

mid level wave is likely,y producing some low level wind shear

(30-35kt) through mid evening, before the main front brings

west then northwest winds. Winds eventually decrease one again

later tonight into Friday as surface high pressure returns

across the north and east. 



Due to ample low level moisture from recent snow melt, the

pattern will continue to support pockets of fog and a stronger

signal for stratus (post frontal) tonight into Friday morning.

Confidence in location of VLIFR conditions remains low. There 

is a bit more consistency in guidance showing for IFR or LIFR 

vis/ceilings in northwest MN towards KTVF with GFK on the edge 

of this region after 08Z through 15Z. Considering the lower 

predictability of this pattern and the history of guidance 

struggling with location/coverage/timing, we will need to 

monitor trends with a greater focus on persistence/near term 

satellite/ob trends.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JR

AVIATION...DJR