FXUS63 KFGF 191715 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms Thursday for all of eastern North Dakota and northwest and west central MN. Main hazards are damaging winds to 60 mph and golf ball size hail. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Persistent low to mid level cloud cover prevails across much of northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s with winds of 7-12 mph out of the north. The forecast remains on track at midday, with a few adjustments made to cloud cover grids to reflect the latest trends. UPDATE Issued at 709 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Variety of conditions across the area. Low clouds and ground fog in parts of the Devils Lake basin with highly variable vsby. Webcams indicate ground fog with sun on top of it. Clouds in NW MN (TVF-ROX-BJI) with local fog too. In between sky clear and no fog. So too inconsistent to issue advisory but of course mentioned in grids and put a message on social media. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...Synopsis... A wide variety of cloud cover over the area at 08z. Patches of stratocu (MVFR and low end VFR) but also areas of mostly clear sky. Throw in some areas/patchy fog into the mix and that is what we have to start the day. The clouds and fog will burn off quicker today than on Monday with partly sunny in NW MN and mostly sunny elsewhere. Based on much of the valley over achieving on temps Monday did blend in NBM75 for highs today to go a bit warmer E ND and RRV. 850 mb temps remain steady or in some areas cool a degree or so. That would mean mid 80s for highs in E ND/RRV. NW MN a bit warmer due to the expectation of more sun vs on Monday. 500 mb ridge builds northward into Montana today and then eastward into western ND Wednesday with an area of hot air with this as highs reach near 100 in these areas. Upper ridging moves east Wed night-Thu into our area but the the main heat will stay a bit more south, but some locations may reach 90 in SE ND depending on cloud cover. Best t-storm chances look to be in Saskatchewan into western Manitoba Wed aftn/night on edge of hot dome and on nose of 40-50 kt low level jet. Surface cold front moves into western MB, western ND at night. Ensembles show highest instability (2-3000 j/kg) and 40-50 kt bulk shear north of the border. Some strong or severe storms may develop southward into north central or northwest ND Wed evening/night. The bulk of the chances look to remain just west of our area. ...Severe Storm Risk Thursday... Frontal system moves east and will be near a Roseau-Fargo line 00z Fri. Indications are sfc CAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear ahead of the frontal boundary from south central/southeast Manitoba thru eastern ND/NW MN in the aftn. Mid level westerly jet 40 kts as well is thru ND into SE Manitoba southeast of a an upper low advancing east thru northern parts of Saskatchewan. Using the ensemble mean of EC/GFS highest probability of 2000 j/kg CAPE (and higher) overlaid with bulk shear of 30 kts is in the Red River valley Grand Forks to Fargo and into far NE South Dakota and also adjacent western MN. SPC has level 1 out of 5 right now for Thursday but mentioned it may need to be upgraded in future forecasts. After this, the upper low from northern Saskatchewan moves into Manitoba and then drops southeast into Ontario and forms a 500 mb trough with cooler air spreading south Friday into the weekend/early next week. Center of high pressure looks to be over Saskatchewan into western ND this weekend with our area on a breezier side of things along with a mix of cloud/sun. Risk of a few showers Saturday Lake of the Woods area closer to 500 mb low and cooler air aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 MVFR ceilings prevail across most areas this afternoon. Look for slow improvement this afternoon, with all TAF sites expected to see VFR conditions by early this evening. Winds become light and variable overnight, with south winds expected to increase as we head into Wednesday mid morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch/Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch