FXUS63 KFGF 190908 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 408 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms Thursday for all of eastern North Dakota and northwest and west central MN. Main hazards are damaging winds to 60 mph and golf ball size hail. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...Synopsis... A wide variety of cloud cover over the area at 08z. Patches of startocu (MVFR and low end VFR) but also areas of mostly clear sky. Throw in some areas/patchy fog into the mix and that is what we have to start the day. The clouds and fog will burn off quicker today than on Monday with partly sunny in NW MN and mostly sunny elswewhere. Based on much of the valley over achieving on temps Monday did blend in NBM75 for highs today to go a bit warmer E ND and RRV. 850 mb temps remain steady or in some areas cool a degree or so. That would mean mid 80s for highs in E ND/RRV. NW MN a bit warmer due to the expectation of more sun vs on Monday. 500 mb ridge builds northward into Montana today and then eastward into western ND Wednesday with an area of hot air with this as highs reach near 100 in these areas. Upper ridging moves east Wed night-Thu into our area but the the main heat will stay a bit more south, but some locations may reach 90 in SE ND depending on cloud cover. Best t-storm chances look to be in Saskatchewan into western Manitoba Wed aftn/night on edge of hot dome and on nose of 40-50 kt low level jet. Surface cold front moves into western MB, western ND at night. Ensembles show highest instability (2-3000 j/kg) and 40-50 kt bulk shear north of the border. Some strong or severe storms may develop southward into north central or northwest ND Wed evening/night. The bulk of the chances look to remain just west of our area. ...Severe Storm Risk Thursday... Frontal system moves east and will be near a Roseau-Fargo line 00z Fri. Indications are sfc CAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear ahead of the frontal boundary from south central/southeast Manitoba thru eastern ND/NW MN in the aftn. Mid level westerly jet 40 kts as well is thru ND into SE Manitoba southeast of a an upper low advancing east thru northern parts of Saskatchewan. Using the ensemble mean of EC/GFS highest probability of 2000 j/kg CAPE (and higher) overlaid with bulk shear of 30 kts is in the Red River valley Grand Forks to Fargo and into far NE South Dakota and also adjacent western MN. SPC has level 1 out of 5 right now for Thursday but mentioned it may need to be upgraded in future forecasts. After this, the upper low from northern Saskatchewan moves into Manitoba and then drops southeast into Ontario and forms a 500 mb trough with cooler air spreading south Friday into the weekend/early next week. Center of high pressure looks to be over Saskatchewan into western ND this weekend with our area on a breezier side of things along with a mix of cloud/sun. Risk of a few showers Saturday Lake of the Woodsd area closer to 500 mb low and cooler air aloft. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Main impact to aviation will be low ceilings and fog tonight into Tuesday morning. Areas of very low stratus and fog are already being noticed within portions of north-central and northeast Minnesota, as well as into Manitoba. This is forecast to spread into portions of eastern ND into northwest and west-central MN. Confidence remains high enough to include BR/FG in TAFs, however, it still remains unclear how thick fog will be at each site. KBJI and KDVL hold relatively highest chances for seeing dense fog/LIFR conditions between 09-15Z. During the day Tuesday, VFR conditions return with light winds under 10 kt. &&.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...CJ