FXUS63 KFGF 071200

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

700 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



-  The probability of widespread weather impacts is low through

   the next 7 days.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Skies generally clear as we approach sunrise. Temps inm the mid

teens to low 20s as expected.   No reason to adjust forecast.  





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



...Synopsis...



High pressure is settling south and will be north of Winnipeg at

12z Mon. Winds have been diminishing the past few hours and will

continue to do so thru 12z to around 5 kts. High pressure will

move south and be over the Red River valley late this aftn/eve

giving light winds. Winds turn southeast later tonight and then

incease in speed from the southeast Tuesday as high slides east.

An area of thin cirrus notied moving south from western Manitoba

and across North Dakota and this will likely exit the area early

this morning. With dry airmass in place expect full sun today.

Chilly though as 850 mb temps from -15C northeast to -12C

southwest. This will yield highs in the 30s. Temps rebound into

the 40s Tuesday.



An upper level short wave will move into southern B.C. and

southern Alberta today and Tuesday and be into southern

Saskatchewan by 12z Wed and then drift southeast over E ND Wed

evening/night. Moisture with this is rather limited with best

850 mb moisture more in Canada. So NBM pops in the 20s and 30s

seem reasonable with areas of light rain over the area Tues

overnight into Wed night as it moves through. Rain amounts look

to be under a tenth of an inch.



Next stronger 500 mb short wave enters the west coast of the

U.S. late week. 500 mb ridge builds into the northern plains

Fri-Sat giving warmer temps. ECMWF is more agressive and digs

the 500 mb waver farther south, before taking the wave and

associated low pressure system from Colorado into eastern ND by

00z Mon. GFS/Canadian Global a bit less strong with upper wave

and take it more from southern Idaho and into eastern Montana

and western Manitoba. Either way for our area will see increased

chances for showers. But ECMWF would be a bit wetter. NBM has

probs of greater than 0.25 inch in the 10-15 percent range in

our area and higher north of the border. As it stands currently,

either solution though would not bring enough rain to cause 

impacts to our area.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



VFR thru the period. A few cirrus today into tonight. North

winds under 10 kts today turning southeast in E ND/RRV under 10

kts tonight.  



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Riddle

DISCUSSION...Riddle

AVIATION...Riddle