FXUS63 KFGF 060902

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

402 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Well below average temperatures continue unseasonably cool

  conditions today, then milder.



- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions may develop

  Thursday into the weekend.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Not much change to the forecast overnight. Minor tweeks to sky

cover. Today will be the last day of the upper wave and its cool

air aloft and cloud cover. Some breaks of sun again, but clouds

will remain predominate. Coord with BIS and will mention near

critical fire weather in HWO for eastern ND. For MN counties,

coordination likely needed as due to RH near critical or

critical RH values may occur Thursday as well, despite lower

wind speeds. So will not jump the gun and go near critical

wording yet in MN counties until more coordination on this can

be done. 





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...Synopsis...



Expansive and stalled upper low continues to reside near the

Hudson Bay/ON region. This places our region under northerly and

northwesterly flow aloft, with a continual feed of relatively

cold air mass from north-interior Canada into our region. This

is driving our well below average temperatures, as well as

keeping low chance for rain and/or snow showers today and

Wednesday.



Warmer and much drier air will encroach into the Dakotas from 

the west Thursday and Friday. There is potential for breezy

winds on both of these days as well. The combination of very dry

air, potential for elevated winds, and presently dry fuels will

drive potential for near critical or critical fire weather

conditions these days.



A shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front is forecast

to move through our region out of Canada in a clipper-like

fashion. This brings a low chance for light rain into our

region, while keeping temperatures near average behind it.



Next week, the influence of the stalled Hudson Bay upper low

over our region begins to lessen as upper ridging from the West

attempts to build eastward into the Norther Plains and Upper

Midwest. Uncertainty exists in how much ridging will occur over

our area, which will dictate temperatures. On one hand, ridging

may be weak into our area keeping temperatures near average. On

the other hand, ridging may be strong, pushing temperatures

above average. Both scenarios keep quasi-northwesterly flow

aloft, keeping the potential for additional progressive

shortwave trough and surface frontal passages and accompanying

progressive bouts of precipitation.despite the lower

wind speeds (10-20 mph). 





...Fire weather concerns late this week...



Vast majority of guidance indicates a very dry air mass moving

into the Dakotas and Minnesota from the west starting Thursday.

This will push RH values into the 20s Thursday and Friday, 

perhaps even into the teens if deeper mixing occurs. This is 

very dry for our area. Deeper mixing will likely ensue if we 

stay mostly sunny on either of these days, which still remains a

possibility, but is low in confidence.



While confidence is high in very dry conditions developing 

these days, confidence is low on winds. This is again stemming

from potential to mix deeper than currently advertised. While

winds currently forecast are under 25 mph, if even a slight push

of deeper mixing occurs, gusts could reach into the 30s mph.

This would result in critical fire weather conditions if this

occurs.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Widespread stratus in the VFR ranges (3500-5000ft agl) is in 

place across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is still a 

strong consensus in guidance for a period of MVFR (1800-3000ft 

agl) after 10Z developing out of Canada, with the most likely 

impacts as far south as the Highway 2 corridor in the 12-17Z

period Wednesday morning. This includes KDVL, KGFK, KTVF, and 

KBJI, remaining north of KFAR. This is shown to improve back to

the 4000-6000ft agl range after 17Z, with gusty west-northwest 

winds through the afternoon. 



Drier air arrives with high pressure out of Saskatchewan 

Wednesday evening as the flow that has kept the stratus in place

erodes/moves off to the east. This should support clearing 

trends and decreasing winds (5kt or less).



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Riddle

DISCUSSION...CJ

AVIATION...DJR