FXUS63 KFGF 050832

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

332 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Unseasonably cool today and Wednesday. 



- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions may develop

  Thursday and Friday across the area. 





&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Snow showers have been moving east-southeast out of S Manitoba

and into the far northern RRV and NW MN tonight so did add a 20

pop for snow showers in far NE ND and far NW MN this morning

thru 18z. Evening shift and updated and coordinated with BIS and

DLH for a 20 pop for afternoon rain and snow showers in northern

2/3 of the fcst area. Coldest air over the area today with highs

upper 30s to mid 40s from north to south. -30C 500 mb temps in

association with upper low drops over the northern RRV this

afternoon. And cold temps aloft combined with 850 mb layer

moisture will continue to mean a chance for a few showers (rain

and snow).



Updated key message to add potential for near critical or

critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday as temps do

warm a bit and low levels are dry, especially on Thursday, with

a WNW wind 8-15 kts. Prog RH values Thursday afternoon 22 to 27

percent.  





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



...Synopsis...



Two main distinct features are present across North America 

this afternoon with an upper low in western Ontario and a low 

off the Baja coast with split jet flow in between. As the Baja 

low comes ashore the subtropical jet becomes dominant and the 

upper low in Canada is finally picked up and ejected east allow 

for deamplified NW flow to return to our region. This also will 

bring a downsloping airmass to the the northern plains for the 

later half of the week with increasing high temps and a drier 

airmass increasing the fire weather potential. Within the NW 

will likley be a few subtle shortwaves but nothing noteworthy in

terms of precipitation chances.



Lapse rate driven strato-cu are leading to high probability low

qpf showers this afternoon with moderate spacing keeping the 

coverage aspect on the lower side. Continuing with the 20-35% 

pops this evening with a little graupel even mixing in on the 

leading edge of the last shower that passed over the office. QPF

staying under 0.10" this afternoon with coverage dissipating by

midnight. Cant rule out some more shower activity tomorrow. 



Additional chances for critical fire weather conditions arise 

later this week. Persistent northwesterly flow continues to 

contribute to downsloping and dry airmasses over our region, so 

days with increasing temperatures will bring an increased risk 

for critical fire conditions. The main question marks will be 

wind speeds which do appear likely to meet thresholds of concern

for fire late next week with fuel status also remaining 

critical. ERC percentiles are still largely high though HRB is 

beginning to respond to green-up so fire spread may become 

inhibited. At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to have the 

greatest likelihood for critical fire weather conditions.



With ongoing green up across the region we will be planning to 

start up Frost/Freeze headlines this coming weekend. Obviously 

still high uncertainty with respect to exact temperatures come 

this weekend along with winds but current conditions do support 

at least a threat that will have to be monitored despite highs 

in the 50s and 60s by the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Generally VFR throughout the TAF period. Ceilings overnight

should be around or just shy of 10,000 ft AGL. On Tuesday, 

another round of ceilings similar to what we experienced on 

Monday (3500 to 5000 ft AGL) will develop, with a few rain or 

even snow showers. Impacts from these showers will be minimal 

(very brief visibility reductions into the MVFR range as a worst

case scenario). Due to their spotty nature, low predictability 

and low level of impact, left any mention of precipitation out 

of the TAFs for now. Winds will also pick back up by mid Tuesday

morning. While winds will be a little lower then observed on 

Monday, there will still be a few gusts of up to 20 knots out 

there, particularly at KGFK and KFAR.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Riddle

DISCUSSION...TT

AVIATION...Rafferty