FXUS63 KFGF 042000

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

300 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread showers this afternoon with mostly rain and 

  occasionally graupel.



- Cooler to start the week with highs in the 40s and 50s before

  60s and 70s return Thursday onwards.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



...Synopsis...



Two main distinct features are present across North America 

this afternoon with an upper low in western Ontario and a low 

off the Baja coast with split jet flow in between. As the Baja 

low comes ashore the subtropical jet becomes dominant and the 

upper low in Canada is finally picked up and ejected east allow 

for deamplified NW flow to return to our region. This also will 

bring a downsloping airmass to the the northern plains for the 

later half of the week with increasing high temps and a drier 

airmass increasing the fire weather potential. Within the NW 

will likley be a few subtle shortwaves but nothing noteworthy in

terms of precipitation chances.



Lapse rate driven strato-cu are leading to high probability low

qpf showers this afternoon with moderate spacing keeping the 

coverage aspect on the lower side. Continuing with the 20-35% 

pops this evening with a little graupel even mixing in on the 

leading edge of the last shower that passed over the office. QPF

staying under 0.10" this afternoon with coverage dissipating by

midnight. Cant rule out some more shower activity tomorrow. 



Additional chances for critical fire weather conditions arise 

later this week. Persistent northwesterly flow continues to 

contribute to downsloping and dry airmasses over our region, so 

days with increasing temperatures will bring an increased risk 

for critical fire conditions. The main question marks will be 

wind speeds which do appear likely to meet thresholds of concern

for fire late next week with fuel status also remaining 

critical. ERC percentiles are still largely high though HRB is 

beginning to respond to green-up so fire spread may become 

inhibited. At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to have the 

greatest likelihood for critical fire weather conditions.



With ongoing green up across the region we will be planning to 

start up Frost/Freeze headlines this coming weekend. Obviously 

still high uncertainty with respect to exact temperatures come 

this weekend along with winds but current conditions do support 

at least a threat that will have to be monitored despite highs 

in the 50s and 60s by the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Patchy MVFR as afternoon strato-CU continually develop and drift

SE. Have seen occasional cigs as low as 2000-2500 but most are

3500+ leading to mostly VFR. These should only increase with

sustained cold air advection and increasing BL depth. Winds

gusting near 30kts but only occasionally over 30kts with the

window for any gusts over 30kts really through about 21z or so.

otherwise NW at 20kts gusting 25-28kts this afternoon. Winds die

off tonight before increasing around 15z tomorrow. Scattered

showers as well this afternoon but confidence in near zero in

timing/placement therefore went with VCSH for all sites. Would

have gone prob30 but coverage is only about 20% of the area thus

not quite high enough to do that. Just know there is a 90+ % 

chance of seeing a shower at some point in the next 8 hours.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TT

AVIATION...TT