FXUS63 KFGF 031547

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

947 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Flurries and light snow today into tonight, with a trace to 

  two tenths accumulating. 



- Temperatures to turn above average from Thursday into next 

  week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 947 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Light radar returns continue across much of eastern ND and the 

Red River Valley. Driven by a weak shortwave thats diving to the

south, light snow should come to an end later this morning 

north to early afternoon south. Outside of adjusting PoPs to 

match this latest thinking, very few other changes were needed 

to the going forecast at this time. 



UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



After the initial forecast issuance, did coord with BIS and

updated to increase pops for an area of light snow that is

moving south-southeast thru the DVL basin. Radar returns and

vsbys indicated more than just flurries we had in there, so

wanted to mention light snow and also threw in WPC QPF today and

tonight to give at least a little bit of light accumulation.

Kept low pops into the aftn into the RRV.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



...Synopsis...



Area remains in northwest flow aloft and there are a couple of

weak shortwaves to move through the area the next 24 hours.

One is in southwest Manitoba with some light snow and flurries

and this will move southeast today and bring some flurries into

northeast ND. Second one upstream will bring another chance for

flurries or light snow tonight. Trace to a tenth or two

accumulation. Strong 500 mb wave and surface low moves southeast

from northern Manitoba into NW Ontario late Wednesday and this

is on the edge of 850 mb warm advection which moves in

Wednesday, with rising temps Wed night and a mild day Thursday

with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. High temps in the forecast

of 35 to 42 degrees is on the 75th percentile range of NBM.

West-northwest winds 15-30 mph though will aid in warming. Cold

front does drop south into northeast ND and northwest MN toward

06z Fri and thru all areas Friday early morning. Gusty north

winds and cold advection, but little in the way of snow forecast

along the front. Hints do show up of a few snow showers or

flurries with the front in colder air with 925 mb winds 30 kts

available for mixing. So not out of the question there is a

period of light snow/flurries and strong enough wind to bring

brief period of visibility reductions. Chance of advisory 

impacts would be less than 5 percent at this point. 



Colder Friday, then warming back above average this weekend into

early next week as 500 mb flow turns more southwesterly with

trough digging into the southwestern US mid week. This may aid

in bringing increased precip chances mid next week.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 658 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Initial clouds moving east into the valley are VFR mid clouds,

and these will spread east thru NW/WC MN today. Enough

saturation takes place at 850 mb from west to east thru the day

into tonight to gradually lower ceilings to more MVFR range by

tonight. I kept -sn out of the TAFs themselves in most locations

just due to uncertainty in timing.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle

DISCUSSION...Riddle

AVIATION...Riddle