FXUS63 KFGF 021732

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

1132 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Snowfall may impact travel conditions midday into afternoon

  over parts of eastern North Dakota, mainly west of Devils Lake

  and west of Fargo.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



...Synopsis...



Westerly 500 mb flow into southern BC and Washington state

becomes northwesterly over the Great Lakes region with mean

trough position along the US east coast. This pattern we have

been in for most of the winter continues but does late week and

next week look to break down some as upper trough and cold air

lessens and flow becomes more west and eventually southwesterly

over the northern Plains in about 7-10 days. Until then, upper

level short waves will move into Alberta and then a track

southeast thru the northern Plains. Eventually the track of

these waves will be more north/east of the area as milder air

tries to move in for a brief period Wed-Thu. 500 mb wave is

shown on water vapor satellite this early morning in north

central Montana and this wave will be in northeast/east central

Montana at 12z today and then thru SW ND into north central SD

by 18z today then toward SE SD 00z Tue.  



...Today snowfall...



Clouds prevalent to start today over much of the area with 

drier 925-850 mb airmass upstream in Manitoba north of Winnipeg.

Drier north wind 10 kts will occur today over most of the area 

and keep the snow from the southeast moving short wave more so 

NW into south central ND into northeast SD. Using a blend of 

various CAMs and HREF a narrow zone of enhanced lift aided by 

850 mb warm advection is quite noticeable in the Regina-Estevan 

SK to Minot-Jamestown region thru early afternoon, before 

weakening. CAMS and HREF indicate narrow zone of potential 3+ 

inch of snow in that zone as well. All indications from the warm

advection zone that this heavier snowfall will stay to our 

west....with eastern edge of snowfall today limited to DVL-FAR 

and west/south with Devils Lake and Fargo cities proper on the 

far east edge of any snow. Heavier snowfall potential is just 

west of the our area, with 1 inch or so of snow western Benson 

county to Valley City/Barnes county area. Frontogenetical 

forcing is present as well, but seems a bit displaced to the 

northeast from main 850 mb warm advection and likely snow area 

and also it is transient so not set over one area. 



Snow chances end late today/early evening in SE ND. High

pressure dropping south into S Manitoba tonight will bring drier

airmass and should be mostly clear sky to northern RRV and NW

MN. Lingering clouds may hold into Tuesday western and far south

fcst area, with some flurries and light snow possible late

tonight in central ND. This area of 850 mb moisture may well

spread back east Tuesday bringing a bit of light snow or

flurries.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Widespread MVFR this afternoon as warm air advection drives a 

low level status deck across the region with a passing wave to 

the west in central ND. TVF and BJI are somewhat on the northern

edge of this and may briefly clear this afternoon but error on 

the side of caution and kept this more on the worse end of whats

possible for planning purposes. MVFR/IFR then looks likely 

after 06z as another wave brings some light snow and low clouds 

tomorrow.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Riddle

AVIATION...TT