FXUS63 KEAX 251131

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

631 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Fairly cloudy week ahead with periodic chances of light rain. 

  Temperatures are expected to largely remain below normal, most 

  noticiably on day time highs.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Broad upper level low continues to pinwheel across the Southern

Plains. As of 08Z, this system was centered across the 

panhandle of Oklahoma. This system is expected to inch across 

the state of Oklahoma in the next day or so. Broad, unfocused 

low level warm air advection is expected to lead to weak 

isentropic lift expanding northward across the region today. 

Current surface dew point depressions of 10-15 degrees F are 

indicative of the dry air that has to be overcome as dynamics 

increase across the region. Have followed isentropic lift on the

295-300K surface in drawing pops today though tonight, but was 

concious of the near surface dry layer that will likely eat away

at the precipitation potential on the north side of the 

developing precipitation shield. Lift increases late this 

afternoon into tonight, which will likely lead to slightly 

higher QPF amounts tonight as the isentropic lift shifts 

northward towards highway 36. Instability continues to look 

limited to non-existant/ so am expecting light rain/drizzle 

event throughout the day into tonight. This will keep the 

diurnal curve muted with temperatures remaining in the 50s. 



Potential deep saturation from the surface to 600 mb lingers Sunday 

along and south of I-70.  While the the isentropic lift dwindles, 

could still see pockets of drizzle or light rain throughout the day 

most prevolent south of I-70.  With extensive cloud cover, 

temperatures will once again largely remain in the 50s, though the 

drier air in north central Missouri may allow temperatures to warm 

slightly more towards 60 F.  



Trough over the Gulf of Alaska this morning is expected to build 

into the Pacific NW this weekend. Short waves associated with 

this system may try to drift southeast in the northwest flow 

potentially leading to additional precipitation Monday night 

into at least mid-week. Model solutions are trending towards a 

deepening cut off low developing in the central US mid-week, 

which could keep the chance of showers around through Thursday. 

LREF ensemble probabilities of measurable precipitation have 

increased to 20-40 percent (greatest in central/eastern 

Missouri), though this idea is not currently represented in the 

forecast.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



MVFR ceilings are expected mainly west of highway 65 today.

Visibilities may decrease some this afternoon into this evening,

with greatest reductions in visibility south of I-70. Light

southeast winds are expected to become more easterly with time. 



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BT

AVIATION...BT