FXUS63 KEAX 250840 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 340 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fairly cloudy week ahead with periodic chances of light rain. Temperatures are expected to largely remain below normal, most noticiably on day time highs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Broad upper level low continues to pinwheel across the Southern Plains. As of 08Z, this system was centered across the panhandle of Oklahoma. This system is expected to inch across the state of Oklahoma in the next day or so. Broad, unfocused low level warm air advection is expected to lead to weak isentropic lift expanding northward across the region today. Current surface dew point depressions of 10-15 degrees F are indicative of the dry air that has to be overcome as dynamics increase across the region. Have followed isentropic lift on the 295-300K surface in drawing pops today though tonight, but was concious of the near surface dry layer that will likely eat away at the precipitation potential on the north side of the developing precipitation shield. Lift increases late this afternoon into tonight, which will likely lead to slightly higher QPF amounts tonight as the isentropic lift shifts northward towards highway 36. Instability continues to look limited to non-existant/ so am expecting light rain/drizzle event throughout the day into tonight. This will keep the diurnal curve muted with temperatures remaining in the 50s. Potential deep saturation from the surface to 600 mb lingers Sunday along and south of I-70. While the the isentropic lift dwindles, could still see pockets of drizzle or light rain throughout the day most prevolent south of I-70. With extensive cloud cover, temperatures will once again largely remain in the 50s, though the drier air in north central Missouri may allow temperatures to warm slightly more towards 60 F. Trough over the Gulf of Alaska this morning is expected to build into the Pacific NW this weekend. Short waves associated with this system may try to drift southeast in the northwest flow potentially leading to additional precipitation Monday night into at least mid-week. Model solutions are trending towards a deepening cut off low developing in the central US mid-week, which could keep the chance of showers around through Thursday. LREF ensemble probabilities of measurable precipitation have increased to 20-40 percent (greatest in central/eastern Missouri), though this idea is not currently represented in the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 MVFR cigs will prevail thru the pd. Two periods of light showers are expected durg this TAF cycle...the first is expected btn 11Z-13Z til 20Z with the second round expected from 23Z-00Z thru the end of the TAF pd. Vis may be reduced to 5SM-6SM in lgt shra. Winds thru the pd will be out of the ESE/E btn 6-12kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...73