FXUS63 KEAX 242339

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

639 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated to Scattered Rain Showers Today



- Additional Rain Showers Through The Weekend



- Slightly Below Normal Temps Next Week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Deep mid and upper-level trough is starting to develop into a closed-

low system as its axis moves across the Front Range and High Plains 

this afternoon. Strong dCVA across the southern Plains will allow a 

deepening surface cyclone to move northeastward toward the eastern 

Plains and lower Missouri River Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours. 

Southwesterly winds and the approach of a warm front have provided 

overcast skies for most of the day along with prominent isentropic 

ascent, along with periods of decent rain shower activity. A few 

areas have been able to record a few tenths of an inch thus far, 

while other areas have been lighter. The shower activity has been 

battling a dry boundary layer, but we should continue to see 

saturation with continued moisture transport heading into the 

evening. Satellite and radar trends over the past couple of hours 

have shown a downward trend, and the CAMs appear to be picking up 

this for at least the first couple of hours of the early evening. As 

the jet streak moves over head, we should start to see lift as 

stronger dCVA moves eastward, and increasing low-level convergence 

with the approach of the surface low is expected to reinvigorate 

shower activity. There has not been much in the way of instability 

given the dense cloud cover that has been present before sunrise. 

Most CAMs even with the theta-e transport keep the instability axis 

over central Kansas. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is expected to 

be extremely limited if any thunder happens in our forecast area at 

all. Lift continues through Saturday and Sunday as the low closes up 

and does not progress very quickly. We still appear to be on track 

for weekend total rain between 0.50-0.75 inches. High QPF axis 

remains in southern Missouri for most of this event. Activity could 

linger into Monday morning. 



By Monday afternoon, closed low should move east of the Mississippi 

River Valley providing a break from rain as a modest mid-level ridge 

axis passes through. However, this will likely be short-lived as 

multiple short-waves are progged to eject across the central CONUS 

this week. Ensemble probabilities hold onto a 30-40 percent chance 

for some form of measurable rain for multiple days next week. There 

is potential for one or two of these waves to produce a stronger 

surface cyclone, which could bring robust precipitation activity, 

along with gusty winds not associated with rain or storms. 

Temperatures will generally be in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with 

cloud cover keeping temperatures generally below average for the end 

of October.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



MVFR cigs/vis with lgt dz/shra expected thru 06Z aft which a pd

of IFR cigs will be poss til 14Z-16Z. Aft 14Z-16Z...lgt shra

with MVFR cigs/vis are expected thru the remainder of the TAF

pd. Winds will be out of the ESE btn 5-10kts thru the pd.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Krull

AVIATION...73