FXUS63 KEAX 240820 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 320 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Periods of rain expected at least through the weekend into early next week. Locations south of I-70 could see upwards of 0.50" of rain by through the weekend. * Temperatures remain below normal through much of the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Upper trough centered over the four corners region is located largely north of the southern branch of the upper level jet. This will lead to a fairly slow progression of the system which will bring periodic chances of rain to the region through the weekend. 00Z sounding from TOP showed a fairly dry troposphere with just over 0.50" of precipitable water. Southerly winds ahead of the trough are drawing moisture northward, and precipitable water values are expected to double by 12Z this morning across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. Have seen a few spokes of isentropic lift lead to light returns on the radar through the overnight, but will be fighting a fair amount of dry air in the sub-cloud layer. Lift in the 295-300K layer remains most concentrated mainly south and west of a line from St Joe MO to Booneville MO. With dry air remaining to the north and east of this line, tried to concentrate pops and precip amounts south. The lift appears to weaken some through the evening hours tonight, and could largely see a break in accumulating precipitation or a transition to drizzle if saturation remains deep enough. Clouds and light precipitation should keep temperatures down through much of the day, and have warmest conditions across north central Missouri where dry air is most likely to win out. Isentropic lift reorients tonight mainly along and south of highway 50 and focused pops/qpf in those locations. Lift continues to favor the southern forecast area (locations mainly south of I-70 into Saturday) as the stacked upper level low makes its way across the southern plains. By Sunday morning the system is expected to be centered along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, still creating the potential for additional showers across the region. Instability looks to be very limited to less than a hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE, limiting the potential for lightning. Additional shortwaves across the Pacific NW are expected to undercut an upper level ridge to the north of the slow moving system to the south. This could keep periodic rain chances around through mid- week, which are well needed with much of the region covered in D0-D2 drought. With abundant cloud cover and periodic chances for rain, temperatures look to be relatively cool for this time of year, especially on the day time high temperatures. There is the potential for drier conditions late week as ridge develops across the western US, but models differ on the strength of this ridge and northwest flow continues to hang on across the central US with potential embedded waves. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Gradual changes have begun to move into the area, primarily in the form of increasing cloud cover. Otherwise VFR conditions continue to prevail currently, with expectation for at least periods of to occur with any heavier SHRA conditions around/after 13-14z and then lowered ceilings around/after 18z. Guidance continues to keep highest confidence MVFR to the W/SW of the area, as well as general lack luster precipitation opportunities through the day. With that in mind, have again kept from going too aggressive with any restrictions related to precipitation or ceilings. Should conditions overachieve, is possible to see IFR flirt with or affect all TAF sites. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Curtis