FXUS63 KEAX 211725 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...Updated 18z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Record high temperatures expected today. If the record is broken, it would be the warmest March day ever recorded for Kansas city, dating back to 1888. - Critical fire weather conditions for northeastern KS and northwestern MO. - Low chances for rain late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 The very strong upper-ridge centered over the Desert Southwest continues to be our primary influence for the near-term. In the lower and middle levels, the 850mb thermal ridge is centered across the Plains but is expansive into the Lower Missouri River Valley. 1000-850mb thickness values are greater than the previous day, ranging from about 141 dam to nearly 144 dam. Given that, think we'll add several degrees to yesterday's highs. With that in mind, we should see widespread low to possibly mid 90s across eastern KS and western MO. Currently forecasting 93 for MCI, which would be the warmest temperature recorded for March for Kansas City dating back to 1888. This is really exceptional heat for this time of year. With the heat comes a very dry air mass. Humidity values could easily drop as low as 15% across northeastern KS and northwestern MO. This is extremely dry for this area and while winds won't be too strong, we should see occasional wind gusts of 20-25 mph across northeastern KS and northwestern MO. Given this, critical fire weather conditions are expected. Have expanded the Red Flag Warning eastward to along the I-35 corridor for northwestern MO. Sunday, mid-level shortwave trough will move across the northern flanks of the broadening upper ridge. This helps to push a cold front southward into/through the forecast area. The trend has been for a quicker frontal passage and as a result, the high temperature forecast in our southeastern zones has trended lower. It will still be unseasonably warm, but high temperatures will be 10 (in our southern zones) to as much as 30 (in our northern zones) degrees cooler Sunday. Surface winds also increase behind the front and we should be able to get 30-35 mph northerly wind gusts Sunday afternoon. The cooler air mass behind this front will lead to seasonal temperatures Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s expected. But temperatures warm back up for the later half of next week as upper-ridging reestablishes itself and spreads eastward. This will lead to dry conditions through most of next week as well. It's not until Friday that any reasonable chance of precipitation moves back into the forecast. This will be the result of front straddling the forecast area. But even this chance is fairly low with PoPs generally less than 30% along and south of I-70. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Another day of mostly clear skies expected, with breezy southwest winds at times. Winds expected to pick up in intensity Sunday late morning through most of the afternoon. VFR ceilings likely arrive with low pressure system approaching the area on Sunday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005- 011>014-020-021-028. KS...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102- 103. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Krull