FXUS63 KEAX 211114 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 614 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...Updated 12z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog Possible Monday Morning with Light Rain Activity - Cool Fall Temperatures This Week - Rain Returns Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Surface cyclone has pushed southeast of the area while surface high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest spreads across much of the central CONUS. While there is not a lot of forcing at the surface, an H5 trough is moving across the Central Plains which will inhibit mid-level height rises. This will be just enough lift today to maintain cloud cover for most of the morning and afternoon hours. This may also help the development of light rainfall activity, drizzle, or sprinkles across the area especially prior to noon today. However, temperatures will remain notably cooler throughout eastern Kansas and Missouri today. If there is any type of light rain or drizzle activity today, this is expected to diminish but low- level moisture may keep lower-level clouds in play through the evening. Tuesday and Wednesday, H5 ridge axis amplifies over the Front Range and High Plains, and will provide height rises into the lower Missouri River Valley and allow the surface high pressure to expand across much of the region. This will help keep conditions mostly dry through the middle of this week. Low-level flow will generally be northeasterly to easterly, limiting any notable temperature advection regimes. Therefore, will maintain high temperatures in upper 60s for areas along Hwy. 36 and northward, with lower 70s southward. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 50s across much of the area, with locations near the Iowa border potentially dropping into the upper 40s. Thursday and Friday, troughing over the Pacific Northwest will work to de-amplify the mid-level ridge pattern across the central CONUS, sending a series of vort maxima toward the Upper Midwest and lower Missouri River Valley. A weak thermal ridge should push eastward, and provide modest warm air advection that aids temperatures getting back into the mid 70s toward the end of the week. This will also provide our next opportunity for rain shower activity. Current ensemble guidance favors western Missouri and eastern Kansas for activity starting late Thursday and continuing into Friday with 30- 40 percent probabilities for measurable rainfall. This then expands eastward into Central Missouri through the remainder of the weekend. Some model guidance does attempt to push temperatures back into the 80s by the end of next weekend, but cloud cover and rain shower potential may largely limit that potential, and current spread amongst ensemble guidance is fairly large for temperature forecasts next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Low-level moisture will maintain IFR ceilings for much of the morning. There are pockets of drizzle and fog out there that may also drop visibilities to IFR as well. Improvement to MVFR for a few hours this afternoon is expected, but IFR conditions are likely to return late tonight and early Tuesday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...Krull