FXUS63 KEAX 210654

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

154 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Record high temperatures expected today. If the record is

  broken, it would be the warmest March day ever recorded for 

  Kansas city, dating back to 1888.



- Critical fire weather conditions for northeastern KS and 

  northwestern MO.



- Low chances for rain late next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



The very strong upper-ridge centered over the Desert Southwest 

continues to be our primary influence for the near-term. In the

lower and middle levels, the 850mb thermal ridge is centered 

across the Plains but is expansive into the Lower Missouri River

Valley. 1000-850mb thickness values are greater than the 

previous day, ranging from about 141 dam to nearly 144 dam. Given

that, think we'll add several degrees to yesterday's highs. 

With that in mind, we should see widespread low to possibly mid 

90s across eastern KS and western MO. Currently forecasting 93 

for MCI, which would be the warmest temperature recorded for 

March for Kansas City dating back to 1888. This is really 

exceptional heat for this time of year. 



With the heat comes a very dry air mass. Humidity values could 

easily drop as low as 15% across northeastern KS and northwestern 

MO. This is extremely dry for this area and while winds won't be too 

strong, we should see occasional wind gusts of 20-25 mph across 

northeastern KS and northwestern MO. Given this, critical fire 

weather conditions are expected. Have expanded the Red Flag Warning 

eastward to along the I-35 corridor for northwestern MO.



Sunday, mid-level shortwave trough will move across the 

northern flanks of the broadening upper ridge. This helps to 

push a cold front southward into/through the forecast area. The 

trend has been for a quicker frontal passage and as a result, 

the high temperature forecast in our southeastern zones has 

trended lower. It will still be unseasonably warm, but high 

temperatures will be 10 (in our southern zones) to as much as 

30 (in our northern zones) degrees cooler Sunday. Surface winds

also increase behind the front and we should be able to get 

30-35 mph northerly wind gusts Sunday afternoon. 



The cooler air mass behind this front will lead to seasonal 

temperatures Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s expected. 

But temperatures warm back up for the later half of next week as 

upper-ridging reestablishes itself and spreads eastward. This 

will lead to dry conditions through most of next week as well. 

It's not until Friday that any reasonable chance of 

precipitation moves back into the forecast. This will be the 

result of front straddling the forecast area. But even this 

chance is fairly low with PoPs generally less than 30% along and

south of I-70. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with clr skies fcst.

Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 15Z-16Z when they will incr out

of the southwest around 10kts...a few gusts to 20kts will be

poss btn 19Z-23Z. Aft 23Z-00Z...winds will shift to the south

and remain around 10kts.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this 

     evening for MOZ001>005-011>014-020-021-028.

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this 

     evening for KSZ025-102-103.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CDB

AVIATION...73