FXUS63 KEAX 210422

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Red Flag Warning NE Kansas and NW Missouri Saturday



- Cold Front Comes Through Late Sunday



- Another Warm Up Next Week, Possible Rain Late Next Week



&&



DISCUSSION...

Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



H5 594dam high pressure sits over the desert southwest and has 

allowed a strong 850mb thermal ridge to push into the Plains and 

portions of the western Ohio River Valley. There is enhanced flow 

across the top of the ridge primarily over the Canadian Prairie 

Provinces, which is producing a surface cyclone across the Great 

Lakes Region. Most of this though will not impact our forecast area 

that greatly. The lower Missouri River Valley will continue to 

experience strong dAVA, but this is starting to shift southeastward 

and so is the associated surface anticyclone. But with the forcing 

staying away from the area, skies should still remain relatively 

clear. 



Saturday, a few shots of vorticity moving through the top of the 

ridge axis. This will push the center of the H5 594dam high 

southward a bit, as well as deamplify the ridge and promoting brisk 

mid-level zonal flow from the Rockies into the eastern Plains. The 

850mb thermal ridge axis continues to shift eastward, and dCVA into 

the Front Range will promote surface pressure falls. This should 

enhance low-level southwesterly flow Saturday afternoon, leading to 

another day of temperatures well into the 80s across most of the 

forecast area. Strong mixing will result in lower relative humidity 

through the afternoon, and recent model guidance is also suggesting 

winds toward the top of the mixed layer around 25 kts, especially 

for northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. For this reason, have 

placed a few counties in our northwest zones into a Red Flag 

Warning. Elevated fire weather concerns will exist elsewhere. Fuels 

are more moist from the KC Metro eastward into Central Missouri. 



Sunday, more reinforcing shots of moderate dCVA will be present 

across much of the central CONUS, which will allow a full surface 

cyclogenesis to take place, moving across the Plains with stronger 

cold front that will trail it. With the lack of moisture return, no 

precipitation is expected despite the strong lift that will be 

present. Increasing mid to high level cloud cover will be likely on 

Sunday. As for Sunday temperatures, most solutions keep the cold 

front northwest of the area prior to peak heating, which means 

temperatures should still reach the 70s before dropping with FROPA. 

Perhaps far northwest zones may struggle to warm up if the cold 

front moves through earlier. Ensemble inner-quartile spread is 

larger for Sunday, as there are some members that push the front 

through before peak heating. Expecting increasing wind gusts on 

Sunday as the cyclone deepens and the pressure gradient strengthens. 



Monday, cold front clears the area, and will bring high temperatures 

into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures though are expected 

to rebound, the H5 high will try to move northward back into the 

desert southwest, which would prevent any notable mid-level trough 

fro digging southward enough. Stronger surface anticyclone spanning 

from the western Great Lakes into the western Ohio River Valley will 

keep conditions clear, and should allow for insolation through much 

of next week, gradually reaching the 70s and perhaps even lower 80s 

by the middle to end of next week. There is some uncertainty with 

respect to the mid-level flow, as a few short-wave perturbations may 

allow for some cloud cover development of reduce the magnitude of 

WAA. The next mentionable chance for precipitation will come late 

Thursday into Friday of next week.  



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with clr skies fcst.

Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 15Z-16Z when they will incr out

of the southwest around 10kts...a few gusts to 20kts will be

poss btn 19Z-23Z. Aft 23Z-00Z...winds will shift to the south

and remain around 10kts.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001-

     002-011-012-020.

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-

     102-103.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...73