FXUS63 KEAX 201725

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1225 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



...Updated 18z Aviation...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Record high temperatures very likely today, possible Saturday.



- Dry weather conditions expected through the next 7 days. 



- The hot and dry weather will lead elevated fire weather

  conditions Friday and Saturday across eastern KS and western

  MO.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Very strong upper-level ridging, centered over the Southwest, but 

expansive across the western two-thirds of the CONUS, will very 

likely (~80%) lead to record high temperatures today at both 

MCI and STJ, with records possible (~30-40%) on Saturday as 

well. The airmass over the region is also incredibly dry, with 

large dewpoint depressions through several KM of the lower 

troposphere. While, fortunately, winds will be relatively mild, 

we will be looking at surface RH values potentially in the 10-20

percent range, especially on Saturday. This will lead to 

elevated to potentially near-critical fire weather conditions 

for eastern/northeastern KS and western/northwestern MO. 



The upper ridge will begin to flatten/ broaden out later in the

weekend, and that will help to allow a weak mid-level shortwave

to move across the region Sunday. This wave will help push a 

front through the area during the day on Sunday. Available 

guidance has this front through most of the forecast prior to 

peak heating, so high temperatures will be 10+ degrees cooler 

Sunday for much of the area. Our southeastern zones could still 

see highs in the upper 80s to potentially pushing 90 degrees. 

Given the very dry air in place across the region, this will be 

a dry frontal passage. In fact, our next chance for 

precipitation likely won't arrive until mid to late next week. 

For the mid-week chance, most ensemble members are dry, with 

less than a 10% chance for measurable rain. For later in the 

week, chances are better, with more members showing some 

precipitation. But even then, chances are generally less than 

25%. So overall, the forecast is very likely to be dry through 

the end of next work week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



High pressure is starting to slide southward but VFR conditions

will prevail. Winds will start to pickup after 18z tomorrow.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001-

     002-011-012-020.

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-

     102-103.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CDB

AVIATION...Krull