FXUS63 KEAX 201139 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 639 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Muggy this morning, but cooler today with highs in the upper 80s. - Seasonally normal temperatures and lower humidities expected for to conclude the week. - Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend ahead of even cooler weather anticipated next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Surface high pressure continues to descend from the upper Midwest while 500mb flow orients out of the north thanks in part to a strengthen high over the southern Rockies and a trough dipping across the Great Lakes and NE CONUS that is also responsible for steering Hurricane Erin back to sea. This funnels cooler drier air into the region making the weather outlook over the next few days quite pleasant. Unfortunately, it will take a little patience to get there as muggy conditions continue this overnight. Temperatures at midnight still hover around 80 degrees sans places which saw some storms earlier this evening. Over the past few hours, temperatures in some areas have decreased quickly to the low 70s. Residual outflow boundaries from earlier storms may develop a few isolated pulse storms through the overnight; however, precipitation chances continue as the nocturnal inversion increases and the atmosphere stabilizes. High temperatures today will reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Heat index values will remain double digits, but areas south of I-70, especially towards Clinton and Butler could make a run to near triple digit heat index values. Precipitation chances increase slight across central MO this afternoon and evening as a weak area of CVA associated with a subtle upper level shortwave passes through which may develop an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Northerly flow aloft couple with easterly flow below works to bring cooler and drier conditions in to conclude the week. This flow is rather weak so the descent in temperatures and moisture will look rather modest, but the lowered values (especially dew point) will do wonders on what it feels like outside. Highs through the rest of the week sit around the seasonal normal in the mid to high 80s with dew points hanging out in the mid to upper 60s. The next notable storm system looks to move through the area this weekend into early next week. Long range guidance progs a deep cyclone descending from central Canada into the northern Great Lakes. This looks to develop a substantial cold front across the central CONUS which sweeps through the area Saturday and Sunday bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Antecedent northerly flow does little to enhance the pre-frontal environment limited severe weather concerns; however, some guidance does suggest some pre-frontal CVA which may work to turn winds a little southerly ahead of the front's arrival. While this adds a little enhancement, it still keeps the strong to severe potential relatively low. More resolution will be gleaned when CAMs models come into range which may be able to better pick up on shortwave subtleties. Behind this activity, temperatures look to sink even lower with high temperatures settling in the mid to upper 70s which is what we would expected for October rather than late August. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Areas of fog north of the MO river are bringing IFR to LIFR VIS which is expected to linger for the next hour or two. VIS should steadily improve after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected for much of the rest of the period. Northeasterly winds accelerate after sunrise with intermittent periods of 8-10 knots before becoming light. Some isolated RA/TSRA is possible across NE MO. Chances for fog return late in the period, but coverage and impacts remain uncertain at this time. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Pesel