FXUS63 KEAX 192344

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

644 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Additional storms are possible later this afternoon and

  evening across southwestern portions of the CWA.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



This afternoon a boundary reside across the extreme southwestern 

CWA. A cluster of storms located in Topeka is expected to travel 

southeast along this boundary and may persist long enough this 

evening to bring a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and 

heavy rain to the southwestern CWA. Conditions are expected to dry 

out tonight into tomorrow as a surface ridge of high pressure looks 

to build south into the area from the Upper Midwest. This may lead 

to some light fog across the area tomorrow morning. This will also 

return temperatures to nearer seasonal normals tomorrow with lower 

humidity with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The surface ridge 

of high pressure will remain in control over the area on Thursday 

with highs in the 80s. Friday, the surface ridge will slide east of 

the area as a upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners 

region attempts to build eastward providing subtle height rises. 

This will allow highs to rise back into the mid 80s to near 90.  



The next chance for precipitation will arrive in the area Friday 

night as a upper level trough moving through the northern tier 

states acts to flatten the upper ridge attempting to build into the 

region as forces a cold front into the forecast area. Strong storms 

capable of gusty winds may be possible as modest instability between 

1000-1500J/Kg of MUCAPE will be available however, shear will be 

weak. This frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures for 

Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A surface ridge of 

high pressure will then to look to build into the area Saturday 

night into Sunday ushering in early Fall-like temperatures for 

Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A reinforcing 

surface ridge will build south from the northern Plains on Monday 

under northwest flow aloft bringing another early Fall-like day with 

highs in the mid to upper 70s.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



A few showers are ongoing this late afternoon southeast of the 

KC metro, but the terminals are expected to remain dry through 

the period. VFR conditions are generally expected, although 

there may be a brief period of fog reducing VIS to MVFR between 

around 9z and 13z Wednesday morning, primarily at STJ and MCI.

Light and variable winds this evening should eventually become

northeasterly, remaining light (8 knots or less). 



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...73

AVIATION...BMW