FXUS63 KEAX 192053

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

353 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warm Through Saturday



- Lower Relative Humidity Next Few Afternoons



- Most Models Keep Precipitation out 7 Day Forecast



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Strong dAVA has reinforced a surface anticyclone across the area 

that has skies clear this afternoon, with strong insolation and 

boundary layer mixing helping temperatures reach the upper 70s and 

lower 80s today. This will continue to be the story through 

Saturday, as a well amplified H5 ridge axis slowly shifts eastward, 

with 850mb thermal ridge axis sliding eastward. The next few 

afternoons will feature lower relative humidity values with 

afternoon mixing, and in far northwest Missouri and far northeastern 

Kansas. However, no notable pressure gradient will be present the 

next few days which will greatly limit wind gusts in our area. The 

stronger winds will be further west into Central Kansas. Therefore, 

have not issued any fire weather headlines for our counties with 

this forecast update. Temperature wise, Friday and Saturday are 

fairly locked into highs in the 80s. 



Sunday, a mid-level short-wave will slightly deamplify the strong 

ridge and develop a surface cyclone in the Northern Rockies that 

will move east-southeast across the Central CONUS. Eventually this 

will bring a cold front at some point Sunday into Monday and lower 

temperatures. While there will be some lift and cloud cover 

development, overall moisture profile is weak, resulting in a dry 

forecast with respect to precipitation. Temperatures on Monday may 

only reach the upper 50s with the passage of this system. After this 

short-wave moves through, mid-level ridge axis re-amplifies with 

some deterministic model solutions depicting a 590dam high, which 

will switch the lower Missouri River Valley back to a strong WAA 

regime. Over the Prairie Provinces of Canada, mid-level flow may be 

more unsettled, and it will be battle of how far southward that can 

propagate with the strong H5 ridge. Even in ensemble solutions that 

bring the forcing far enough south, keep the moisture content low 

resulting in very low probabilities for any precipitation toward the 

end of the forecast period.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



High pressure will continue to keep conditions VFR and winds

fairly light through the 18z TAF period.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Krull

AVIATION...Krull