FXUS63 KEAX 190947

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

447 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Temperatures continue warming through Saturday

  - Records most likely to fall on Friday



* Some elevated fire weather conditions possible Friday/Saturday



* Temperatures begin to regress closer to seasonal norms Sunday into 

  next week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026



Rinse and repeat forecast generally speaking. The main weather 

driver continues to be the highly seasonally anomalous (594+ dam) 

500mb ridge over the SW CONUS. It will continue to painstakingly 

drift eastward over the next few days, exerting increasing influence 

over the central CONUS. This yields continued quiet overall 

conditions (any notable shortwaves displaced northward), 

predominantly lighter surface flow, and increasing temperatures. 

Temperatures remain expected to peak Saturday, but does not look 

completely in line with peak 850mb temp timing. Basically, the peak 

850mb ridge comes in after peak heating Saturday, with current 00z 

guidance. If looking for something to watch, that may be it. If 

850mb ridge comes in a bit sooner, low 90s deg F certainly in the 

discussion. Otherwise, given depicted 850mb temps in the upper teens 

during peak heating Saturday over the western forecast area, 

existing forecast in upper 80s sits well. Note, the forecast trend 

for Friday/Saturday has been a couple/few degrees warmer over the 

last handful of forecast cycles. Records remain most likely to fall 

on Friday where there is some "low hanging fruit" within the climate 

record, but also not completely out of the question Saturday if the 

forecast trend continues to be warmer. By Friday/Saturday, it is 

possible we see some nominally elevated fire weather conditions over 

western areas as well given the anomalously warm temperatures and 

forecast RH values into the 20s percent. Working against that notion 

though are forecast lighter winds prior to and on Friday/Saturday, 

recent wetting rains (questionable drying of longer-term fuels), and 

green up. 



By later Saturday, northern stream shortwaves begin flatten out

the mid-upper level ridge. The primary affect this will have is

to allow temperatures to ease back closer to seasonal norms 

into next week. Deterministic synoptic guidance tends to diverge

into next week, but the take home message largely remains 

appears the same... periodic northern stream shortwaves with 

limited opportunity for precipitation in an otherwise abundantly

dry airmass. Aside from Monday, temperatures too look to remain

above seasonal norms rising back into the 70s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 446 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions through the period. Weak trough moves through the

area with light northeast winds developing Thursday. Winds

return out of the south Thursday evening.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Curtis

AVIATION...BT