FXUS63 KEAX 190916

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

416 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms early this 

  morning. A few storms may pack strong winds and heavy 

  rainfall.



- Heat index values around much of the region reach near to 

  just above 100F. Some areas near Butler and Clinton could 

  briefly see heat index values near 105F.



- Additional storms are possible later this afternoon and 

  evening across southern portions of the CWA (I-70/US-50 south)

  more likely along the I-44 corridor.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



A cooler air mass is slowly working its way into the region. 

Satellite and radar imagery through the night shows a couple 

mesoscale convective systems around the region, one over northern KS 

and another over northern IL. Satellite imagery also shows a 

boundary across west central MO which is likely the boundary between 

the antecedent hot air mass of the past week and the cooler one that 

is steadily making its way into the area.  Outflow boundaries 

ejected by the nearby MCS are moving through the area providing just 

enough lift to initiate some isolated elevated thunderstorms this 

morning. These storms have been relatively short lived as upper 

level flow has been relatively weak with just enough instability to 

initiate storms, but not enough to sustain them. Some storms have 

been able to harness the instability and build quickly; however, 

this also leads to them to dissipate quickly. The results in 

potential downbursts and microbursts winds around 40-50 MPH along with 

heavy rainfall.



The boundary between the hot and cooler air mass will be the primary 

focus feature for todays weather outlook. This boundary has made it 

a bit farther south than previous model guidance forecast suggested 

which shifts the storm potential farther south. The boundary has 

retreated a little further north with influence from the MCS to the 

west as well as a weakening upper level ridge extending from eastern 

OK through WV. The end result is this feature sitting across east 

central KS and west central MO from around Garnett, KS through 

Columbia, MO.



Solar heating through the day will enhance differential heating 

across this boundary. South of the boundary, diurnal heating plus 

southerly flow brings heat indices above 100-105F. The location of 

this boundary through our southern tier of counties looks to limit 

the potential for hazardous heat to a small portion of the 

afternoon. Any clouds or storms that form due to the boundary may 

also tamper with heat indicies. Heat index values north of the 

boundary are expected to be lower thanks to weak northerly flow at 

most all levels. Unfortunately, this flow will not be enough to keep 

hot and humid conditions away, but it will limit most areas from 

exceeding 100-102F.



Differential heating across this boundary also serves as a catalyst 

for slight warm frontogenesis and initiate isolated to scattered 

convection across our southern two tiers of counties. With vertical 

profiles showing generally weak flow across all levels, it will 

likely take an outflow boundary or some other catalyst to initiate 

storms. Like this morning, this will likely keep any storms that 

form to behave more like pulse storms rather than robust 

convection. Expected CAPE values around 1500-3000 J/kg show the 

potential for strong updrafts which could produce a strong storm 

with heavy rainfall and potentially damaging winds; however, these 

are expected to be quite short lived; yielding a marginal risk for 

strong to severe storms later this afternoon.



The cooler air mass to the north continues to track southward 

through the day bringing more seasonal conditions starting Wednesday 

through the rest of the week. Another wave of cooler air looks to 

move in towards the weekend bringing our next notable chance of 

precipitation while also ushering in even cooler temperatures with 

prospective highs in the mid to upper 70s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



VFR conditions through the period. Light and variable winds

through the overnight. Mixing will lead to light north-northeast

throughout the daylight with few-scattered cumulus near 3K. 

Outside chance of a thunderstorm or two, but confidence is low 

so left mention out of the terminals for the time being.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Pesel

AVIATION...BT