FXUS63 KEAX 190411 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1111 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm Up Remainder of the Week - Elevated Fire Weather Issues Friday Afternoon - Slightly Cooler Start of Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 The main weather story for the next few days will be highly amplified H5 ridge axis across the western CONUS that will provide several days of notable dAVA across the region. The surface anticyclone has kept conditions clear today, and winds fairly light. A slight eastward shift of the mid-level ridge axis will push an 850mb thermal ridge into the eastern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley. Strong WAA along with multiple afternoons of strong boundary layer mixing will eventually result in temperatures in the mid 80s toward the end of this week. Friday afternoon, mixing may result in relative humidity values dropping slightly below 30 percent, which could result in some elevated fire weather concerns, especially for far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. However, winds are currently forecast to remain under 20 kts. A few short-wave disturbances will move across the region by the end of the weekend and the start of next week, which will make flow more zonal, but a a strong 582dam high will still be located over the southern CONUS. This should be enough to promote some cloud cover and will slightly cool temperatures, eventually allowing a thermal boundary to pass through. There is not currently a strong signal for moisture return ahead of this feature though, which will maintain a mostly dry forecast for the 7 day period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 VFR conditions through the period. Weak trough moves through the area with light northeast winds developing Thursday. Winds return out of the south Thursday evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...BT