FXUS63 KEAX 070728 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Damaging Freezes possible this morning and likely tomorrow morning for susceptible vegetation * Low-end (20-40%) rain/thunder chances return Tuesday night through Thursday. - No hazardous weather expected && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 The main forecast concerns in the short term continue to revolve around freezing overnight temperatures and its effect on sensitive vegetation. Early, this morning the area remains under the influence of a surface ridge sinking south of the area. This has brought light winds and clear skies providing a good radiational cooling setup. Consequently, lows this morning will bottom out in the lower 30s for most. This morning, temperatures will respond as a upper level trough swings through the region forcing a cold front through the area. Despite, winds increasing from the north today, the front will provide deeper mixing allowing temperatures to rise into the 50s to lower 60s. Tonight a surface ridge, will build into the area from the Upper Midwest providing another good setup for radiational cooling. As such, a widespread freeze is expected tonight with lows falling into the mid 20s to near 30...consequently a freeze warning is in effect tonight into Tuesday morning. Sensitive vegetation will need to be protected to avoid being damaged. Tuesday WAA will get underway as the local area will be wedged between the departing surface ridge and a deepening surface low over the western High Plains. Despite the cold start to the day, the WAA will aid in highs rising into the mid 50s to mid 60s. The low-end chances for precipitable weather will occur during the Tuesday night through Thursday window. The first chance at some showers will occur late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weak upper level shortwave approaches the region forcing a surface front through the CWA. Moisture associated with this system is meager and the better chance for precipitation appear to be north of the area where better forcing reside. The best chance for precipitation will be across the northern (closer to the better forcing) and eastern CWA (where some moisture return may reside). However, probabilities reside in the 20-30% range and any rainfall amounts that do occur will only be on the order of a few hundredths. The second chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will occur Wednesday night into Thursday as a upper level trough digs from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. This will force a surface trough through the area Thursday bringing that next chance for precipitation. Temperatures on Wednesday will finally move above normal will highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Slightly, cooler conditions are expected Thursday with increased cloud cover and shower chances (20- 40%) keeping highs in mid 60s to near 70. A warming trend with dry conditions is then expected through the weekend. A surface ridge of high pressure will provide only weak mixing on Friday keeping temperatures in the 60s. However, Friday night into Saturday, upper level ridging over the eastern Rockies will build into the area. This will allow highs to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Sunday, the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the forecast area allowing highs to further rise into the mid 70s to near 80. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 High pressure will lead to mostly clear skies through the 06z TAF period. Winds will become breezy in varying directions throughout Monday afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Krull