FXUS63 KEAX 051730

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1230 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...18z Aviation Update... 



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Additional showers and thunderstorms today with heaviest rainfall 

south of I-70.  



- Lighter shower activity continues tonight. 



- Warmer conditions return to the region, but periodic

  disturbances will lead to additional scattered chances of

  showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Severe weather threat quickly decreased this morning as outflow 

boundary and cold front built south of I-70.  Short waves wrapping 

cyclonically around the upper level trough centered over Ontario 

will lead to periodic chances of showers across the region over the 

next few days. Expect rain showers to become more numerous this 

morning towards day break as subtle shortwave across north central 

KS pushes east providing lift. Elevated instability remains along 

and south of I-70 through much of the day today with steep lapse 

rates from 650-500 mb.  This increased instability could lead to 

enhanced rainfall rates and a few lightning strikes, though should 

be relatively short lived. Could see rainfall amounts of 1-1.5" in 

spots south of I-70, but this remains below flash flood guidance so 

am not anticipating any hydrology issues.  Rain should keep 

temperatures from rising much throughout the day.  Areas across 

northern Missouri may see a slight temperature recovery today with 

low level dry air trying to feed into the region from the north, but 

with 850 hpa temperatures hovering near 2-3 C, will be a struggle to 

warm much beyond 60 F today.



Additional short waves wrapping into the area tonight will lead to 

additional showers, though precipitation efficiency will continue to 

decrease as low level dry air continues to build south.  



With the drier air in the near surface layer, should see a better 

temperature recovery Wednesday after a cool start, though cloud 

cover and cool airmass lingering across the region will keep 

forecast high temperatures in the upper 50s. 



More substantial warming is expected late week into the weekend, but 

periodic shortwaves wrapping around the trough remaining over the 

Hudson Bay will create additional chances of showers and 

thunderstorms.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Predominantly VFR conditions expected to prevail across the

sites. Exceptions potentially within the next couple/few hours

as pockets of heavier SHRA pass near or over the trio of KC

Metro TAF sites. This would yield short-duration MVFR

visibilities. Otherwise, ceilings broadly >7-8kft will continue

through the period with winds eventually settling out of the

northerly direction. Another chance at a few showers late in the

overnight into morning, and have opted for a PROB30 in response

to limited confidence in impacts. 



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BT

AVIATION...Curtis