FXUS63 KEAX 021727

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1127 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



...Updated 18z Aviation...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warmer temperatures this week. Near normal Monday - Wednesday, 

  then above normal for the later half of the week. 



- Dry conditions are very likely (>85%) for the next 7 days,

  with some minor exceptions.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Shortwave upper-level ridging will spread east into the middle 

of the country today, allowing for temperatures to climb into 

the lower 40s, which is slightly above normal for this time of 

year. That upper ridging weakens as a shortwave trough moves 

southward out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. That 

shortwave may result in some flurries across northern MO late 

Monday night into Tuesday morning. At this point, chances look

too low to carry a mention, but have added some ~10% PoPs to 

northern MO. That shortwave will interact with moisture 

streaming north from the Gulf, and bring more widespread 

precipitation chances to areas well south and east of the 

forecast area. 



Temperatures drop of a few degrees Tuesday and Wednesday, in the 

wake of that shortwave, but will remain close to normal for this 

time of year. Rex blocking that had evolved over the eastern 

Pacific/ western US, will, at least partially, breakdown for the 

later half of the week. This allows for some eastward expansion of 

the ridging, which will help the area warm up into the 40s to 50s 

Thursday and Friday. Ensemble mean 500mb heights keep the upper 

ridge over the western half of the CONUS through the weekend. This 

puts the local area within a northwesterly flow regime. This tends 

to favor dry conditions for the region. But it also leads to a fair 

amount of uncertainty regarding temperatures. For example, for the 

KC area, there is 12 degree spread in high temperatures between the 

25th and 75th percentiles for Friday - Sunday. This increases to 14-

20 degrees for the 10th to 90th percentiles for the same time

period. Overall, the forecast is leaning toward the warmer side

of this spread with highs in the mid to upper 50s for the 

weekend across eastern KS and western MO.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



High pressure gradually exits eastward the remainder of the

afternoon and evening but should keep skies clear until the

overnight hours. Cloud cover increases ahead of approaching wave

early Tuesday morning bringing VFR ceilings by the early

afternoon. Conditions may drop to MVFR after 18z on Tuesday.

Light flurry activity is possible in Missouri and portions of

eastern Kansas on Tuesday. 



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CDB

AVIATION...Krull