FXUS63 KDVN 242312 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures through the middle of next week. - Low to medium chances (20-50%) of rain remains in the picture for Saturday through early next week, with the better signal for measurable rainfall Monday night/Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Quiet weather continues in the short term being still largely governed by a large expanse of Great Lakes ridging and dry easterly flow. We'll continue to see an increase in mid/ high cloudiness attendant to a southern stream shortwave and elevated warm advection. The isentropic ascent may also bring some returns on radar, but models continue to keep the sub-cloud layer parched with an easterly wind component off the Great Lakes high. As a result, anticipate mainly virga, with some sprinkles not out of the question particularly across our far west/south. Lows tonight look to vary from the low to mid 30s with some frost mainly N/E of Quad Cities /where clouds thinner and light winds to allow for more radiational cooling/ to the mid/upper 40s far S/W where more opaque cloudiness and a bit stronger E/SE winds. On a side note, between Thursday morning and this morning most of the area has seen a freeze. As a result, this will likely mean the end of the frost/freeze headlines and any mention of frost in the grids/forecast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Saturday and Sunday: the two aforementioned shortwaves will continue to approach the region, making for a mostly cloudy weekend. The NBM continues to have precipitation chances around 20-40% for the weekend, with minimal amounts expected thanks to lingering dry air in the sub-cloud layer. The latest LREF ensemble exceedance probabilities of total rainfall of 0.1 inches or greater have dropped to generally 20-40% through the entire weekend (highest chances across our far south), so not a great signal for a wetting rainfall. Highs Saturday will be mostly held into the 50s and on Sunday are forecast near 60 to the lower 60s but if clouds are more opaque with a continued light easterly wind could be limited to the 50s for some. Monday through Tuesday night: this period appears to be somewhat active as a longwave upper-level trough is progged to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with a strengthening upper-level jet streak. This should help build a longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, although LREF ensemble cluster analysis shows various spatial solutions to the location of the trough, with some ensemble members placing it over our region and others farther east. If the trough is more over our region, we would see higher rainfall amounts, but if the trough is more to the east, then we will likely see less rainfall amounts. Given these discrepancies, uncertain remains pretty high for how things will evolve, and the LREF probabilities of a tenth of an inch or greater of total rainfall doesn't provide much clarity, with values around 40 to 70 percent (highest to the west) for Monday night/Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday: there is a signal for some mid-level ridging to build into the region by Wednesday, dependent on how fast the longwave trough shunts off to the east. The NBM doesn't have much for PoPs during this period, which suggests the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are similar to their deterministic counterparts, which keep conditions largely dry for this period. Again, much will depend on the evolution of the Monday/Tuesday longwave trough. Temperatures look to remain seasonal throughout next week with highs mainly in the 50s/near 60 and lows mainly in the 30s. &&.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions continue to be expected through the period with an increase in mid/high cloudiness. Dry sub-cloud air should limit any warm air advection precipitation to mainly virga with some sprinkles possible with no impacts. Winds will remain generally light from the E/SE through tonight, and then become sustained from S/SE around 10 kt on Saturday with sporadic gusts 14-20 kt by afternoon. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure/Schultz AVIATION...Ervin/McClure