FXUS63 KDVN 241635 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1135 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...Updated for 18z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures become more seasonal today, lasting through mid-week next week - Low to medium chances (20-50%) of rain remains in the picture for Saturday through early next week, with a better signal for measurable rainfall Monday night/Tuesday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Widespread freezing temperatures have been observed over most of the area early this morning, with 08z/3 AM temperature readings in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most locations. The warmest spots remain confined to the south-central CWA near Keokuk and Fort Madison, where readings are still around the middle 30s. Still, with a surface high pressure ridge axis overhead, leading to light winds and mostly clear skies, expect these temperatures to continue to fall early this morning. It appears likely that this will officially mark the end of the local growing season, meaning we will likely be finished with frost/freeze headlines after this morning. For the remainder of today through tonight, winds will turn more southeasterly but should remain on the light side (around 5-10 mph). High cirrus clouds blowing off of a southern stream shortwave should slowly infiltrate the skies today, with a northern stream wave approaching from the northwest tonight. The 24.00z HREF ensemble soundings show lots of dry air in place, especially in the sub-cloud layer below 800 mb, so measurable rainfall will be hard to come, more likely becoming virga or sprinkles. Temperatures look to rebound with southerly flow/warm air advection, with highs today warming to the upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows tonight in the upper 30s to lower/middle 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Saturday and Sunday: the two aforementioned shortwaves will continue to approach the region, making for a mostly cloudy weekend. The NBM continues to have precipitation chances around 20-40% for the weekend, with minimal amounts expected thanks to lingering dry air in the sub-cloud layer. The latest LREF ensemble exceedance probabilities of total rainfall of 0.1 inches or greater are around 40-70% through the entire weekend (highest chances across our south), so not a great signal for a wetting rainfall. Monday through Tuesday night: this period appears to be somewhat active as a longwave upper-level trough is progged to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with a strengthening upper-level jet streak. This should help build a longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, although LREF ensemble cluster analysis shows various spatial solutions to the location of the trough, with some ensemble members placing it over our region and others farther east. If the trough is more over our region, we would see higher rainfall amounts, but if the trough is more to the east, then we will likely see less rainfall amounts. Given these discrepancies, uncertain remains pretty high for how things will evolve, and the LREF probabilities of a tenth of an inch or greater of total rainfall doesn't provide much clarity, with values around 40 to 60 percent (highest to the west) for Monday night/Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday: there is a signal for some mid-level ridging to build into the region by Wednesday, dependent on how fast the longwave trough shunts off to the east. The NBM doesn't have much for PoPs during this period, which suggests the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are similar to their deterministic counterparts, which keep conditions largely dry for this period. Again, much will depend on the evolution of the Monday/Tuesday longwave trough. Temperatures look to remain seasonal for Saturday through Thursday, with highs largely in the upper 50s, and lows in the lower to middle 40s, with perhaps a trend towards cooler lows by mid-week next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period with an increase in mid/high cloudiness. Dry sub-cloud air should limit any warm air advection precipitation to mainly virga with some sprinkles possible with no impacts. Winds will remain generally light from the E/SE through tonight, and then become sustained from S/SE around 10 kt on Saturday with sporadic gusts 14-20 kt by afternoon. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz AVIATION...McClure