FXUS63 KDVN 202343

AFDDVN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

643 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Passing systems will bring shifting winds and fluctuating

  temperatures through next week, but above normal temperatures

  and mostly dry conditions will prevail through at least

  midweek.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Weak surface high pressure will remain draped over the Great 

Lakes Region, keeping us under light northwesterly flow this 

evening. Cold front has generally stalled out through the day 

today, which will then transition into a warm frontal feature 

ahead of the next wave set to pass north of the area. Thus, we 

will see a wind shift through the night, but that is about it. 

Increasing cloud cover will help moderate temperatures as well, 

keeping us in the 40s to near 50 in our south. Thus, a beautiful

evening will lead to a seasonally pleasant night as well. 



Another wave will pass through our north tomorrow, which will help 

induce robust warm advection into the area. We are looking at quite 

a beautiful Saturday, with temperatures well above seasonal norms, 

approaching near-record for Moline! We continue to advertise 

widespread temperatures in the 70s, but we are seeing the spatial 

coverage of that 80 degree mark increasing north towards I-80. Thus, 

the low 80s are not out of question, especially if you are south of 

I-80. Otherwise, decreasing clouds in the AM will lead us to a 

beautiful afternoon with mostly clear skies and a southwesterly 

breeze. Saturday night into Sunday, we will see a cold front pass 

through the area, associated with the low passing north of the area. 

Dry frontal passage is expected, but we will see a wind shift and 

temperature drop on the back-end. Although, the temperature drop 

will be more notable into Sunday/Monday, as much of Saturday night 

will remain ahead of the cold front. Thus, even milder temperatures 

Saturday night, with lows in the upper 40s north to near 60 south! 

To put this into perspective, these overnight lows are at/above our 

normal daily high temperatures for mid March! Perfect weather to 

crack those windows open and allow some fresh air in.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Sunday remains a challenge for highs as evidence by the IQRs of

10-20 degrees in 25th and 75th percentiles of NBM blends. 

Greatest spread remains between Hwy 30 and Hwy 34 roughly near 

the frontal placement during the day on Sunday. With trends 

seemingly toward a faster frontal passage, I can see highs 

needing to be lowered north of Hwy 30 (near 50 or upper 40s 

possible?) and the warm sector pre-frontal 60s to 70s narrowing 

in scope across our south. 



Otherwise, semi-zonal to WNW flow aloft is expected early to mid 

next week. This will likely shuttle some upper level waves down in 

or near the region at times, but moisture does look to be limited to 

where the forecast remains mainly dry Monday through Wednesday. The 

main challenge will remain temperatures with likely swings /roller 

coaster/ warming ahead of waves and then cooling in the wake. 



There remains a signal for precipitation chances returning over the 

latter half of next week, as we see the Polar jet ramping over the 

Northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes. Our region looks to 

reside near the southern flank in diffluent 1000-500 hPa thickness 

supportive of some precip potential via propagation and or 

developing aided by jet entrance region support. The question though 

remains on if there will be sufficient moisture to support this 

potential.



McClure



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



VFR will prevail through the period with unrestricted low-level

visibility. Winds will remain light into early Saturday AM, and

then begin to increase during the late morning out of the 

southwest, gusting 20-25 kts at times through the afternoon.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Record Highs: 



March 20 

Burlington:   80 in 2012 

Cedar Rapids: 77 in 2012

Dubuque:      80 in 2012

Moline:       82 in 2012



March 21  

Burlington:   88 in 1907

Cedar Rapids: 85 in 1938 and previous

Dubuque:      81 in 1938

Moline:       82 in 1938 and previous



&&



.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IA...None.

IL...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Gunkel

LONG TERM...McClure

AVIATION...Uttech

CLIMATE...McClure