FXUS63 KDTX 250704 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 304 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally cool and dry weather this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry airmass is in place with sprawling high pressure over the Central Great Lakes this morning. An upstream upper level wave is tracking into the Western Great Lakes, which is dampening in the process. This is accompanied by the 500 MB shortwave trough axis swinging through southern Lower Michigan late today/this evening. Prospects for showers is very low, but can't entirely rule out light sprinkles with a narrow strip of mid level forcing/modest 850-700 MB Theta-E ribbon tracking along and south of M-59. With an increase in mid to high clouds today and limited mixing, not looking for maximum temperatures to be much warmer compared to yesterday. Subsidence kicks back in for Sunday as heights build, and an upper level ridge center lifts through the Western Great lakes and reaches James Bay late Monday (576 DAM at 500 MB). Southeast Michigan looks to remain under the influence of this ridge through Tuesday morning, but then there is a growing consensus regarding the upper level low/energy over New England. This will track to the west into the Central Great Lakes, becoming absorbed with the digging jet energy/trough over the Central Plains on Tuesday-Wednesday. As this system closes off at 500 MB, a dive to the southeast is expected into the Tennessee Valley before a turn to the northeast. Deformation axis may impact southeast Michigan on Thursday (see 00z ECMWF AIFS/Ukmet), while operational Euro/Canadian/Icon models are mostly glancing blows across far eastern Areas. Still too many upper level wave interactions to contend with this far out. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure builds as it slides east across the Great Lakes this weekend. A prolonged period of northwest flow comes to an end as winds begin to shift to the east today and tonight. As the high moves into Quebec early next week, the gradient once again tightens to increase east flow toward 10-20 knots sustained to start the work week. Elevated waves are expected as flow will be directly onshore for much of the local shoreline, which will likely require Small Craft Advisories early next week. The next chance for widespread precipitation holds off until mid-week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 AVIATION... Steep lapse rates and modest moisture between 3.0 to 5.0 kft agl has maintained VFR cloud this evening. Uncertainty does exist regarding the coverage of cloud for the remainder of tonight as a clearing line has lifted to areas south of Detroit. Expecting a scattering into the daylight hours on Saturday before an embedded vorticity maximum results in midcloud at/above 12.0 kft agl Saturday afternoon. A dry backdoor front will help dry out the column after 22z Saturday. For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorm activity this TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this evening. Low Saturday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......MV AVIATION.....CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.