FXUS63 KDTX 242341 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 741 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally cool and dry weather this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... Steep lapse rates and modest moisture between 3.0 to 5.0 kft agl will maintain VFR cloud into the overnight. Uncertainty does exist regarding the coverage of cloud as there was some diurnal enhancement to the cloud field. Expecting a scattering into the daylight hours on Saturday before an embedded vorticity maximum results in midcloud at/above 12.0 kft agl Saturday afternoon. A dry backdoor front will help dry out the column after 22z Saturday. For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorm activity this TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this evening. Low Saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 DISCUSSION... The back edge of the cold thermal trough hangs over the state today. This is maintaining the lake influenced clouds into southeast Michigan. The steep low level lapse rates will continue to bring a low chance for isolated/scattered rain showers through the remainder of the afternoon, mainly over the Thumb where better jet support exists. Loss of daytime heat will allow lake clouds to decrease in coverage with lower coverage of high clouds for bulk of tonight. This will aide in temperatures tonight down into the low to mid 30s. A closed mid-level low will move across Minnesota and open up as it moves across Michigan over the course of tonight and tomorrow. A surface high pressure center will also be moving from Ontario across the border to Quebec. Overall environment will be very dry with dewpoints in the 30s and PWATS below a half inch. Combination of the surface high with an easterly flow and lack of moisture leans towards dry conditions tomorrow even with the wave overhead. Mid-upper ridge and surface high pressure dominate the pattern Sunday and Monday resulting in quiet weather conditions under mostly sunny skies. Nearly neutral thermal advection over this period will keep temperatures rather steady with daytime highs around the 50s and morning lows Sunday and Monday in the 30s. High pressure ridge gradually gets pinched off Tuesday as a northeast CONUS low pulls west with troughing extending from the northern US Rockies into the mid Mississippi River Valley. These low pressures interact through mid-week leading to broader troughing over the region and exactly how the interaction plays out will also determine rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Lower end rain chances will be in the forecast for now with Wednesday holding the greater chance (~30%). Deep moisture will continue to lack, but Lake Huron moisture with the mid-upper low could support some isolated/scattered lake influenced rain showers. Temperatures remain consistent in the 50s for daytime highs and overnight lows in the 30s. MARINE... High pressure gains influence through the weekend, with conditions trending drier as a result. Northwest flow lingers through mid-day Saturday until the high pressure center drifts overhead, flipping winds to the east by Saturday evening. As the high drifts into Ontario and Quebec early next week, the pressure gradient tightens and strengthens onshore gradient winds. Increasing wave heights are thus expected early next week for shoreline locations, and at this point look to meet advisory criteria (above 5 feet). Rain chances return by mid-week with the return of an upper low. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......MVYou can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.