FXUS63 KDTX 241935 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally cool and dry weather this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... The back edge of the cold thermal trough hangs over the state today. This is maintaining the lake influenced clouds into southeast Michigan. The steep low level lapse rates will continue to bring a low chance for isolated/scattered rain showers through the remainder of the afternoon, mainly over the Thumb where better jet support exists. Loss of daytime heat will allow lake clouds to decrease in coverage with lower coverage of high clouds for bulk of tonight. This will aide in temperatures tonight down into the low to mid 30s. A closed mid-level low will move across Minnesota and open up as it moves across Michigan over the course of tonight and tomorrow. A surface high pressure center will also be moving from Ontario across the border to Quebec. Overall environment will be very dry with dewpoints in the 30s and PWATS below a half inch. Combination of the surface high with an easterly flow and lack of moisture leans towards dry conditions tomorrow even with the wave overhead. Mid-upper ridge and surface high pressure dominate the pattern Sunday and Monday resulting in quiet weather conditions under mostly sunny skies. Nearly neutral thermal advection over this period will keep temperatures rather steady with daytime highs around the 50s and morning lows Sunday and Monday in the 30s. High pressure ridge gradually gets pinched off Tuesday as a northeast CONUS low pulls west with troughing extending from the northern US Rockies into the mid Mississippi River Valley. These low pressures interact through mid-week leading to broader troughing over the region and exactly how the interaction plays out will also determine rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Lower end rain chances will be in the forecast for now with Wednesday holding the greater chance (~30%). Deep moisture will continue to lack, but Lake Huron moisture with the mid-upper low could support some isolated/scattered lake influenced rain showers. Temperatures remain consistent in the 50s for daytime highs and overnight lows in the 30s. && .MARINE... High pressure gains influence through the weekend, with conditions trending drier as a result. Northwest flow lingers through mid-day Saturday until the high pressure center drifts overhead, flipping winds to the east by Saturday evening. As the high drifts into Ontario and Quebec early next week, the pressure gradient tightens and strengthens onshore gradient winds. Increasing wave heights are thus expected early next week for shoreline locations, and at this point look to meet advisory criteria (above 5 feet). Rain chances return by mid-week with the return of an upper low. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 AVIATION... Diurnally enhanced clouds have rapidly developed late this morning within steepening low level lapse rates. For much of the area, initial clouds developed at bases in the MVFR range. As the boundary deepens through daytime heating, bases will largely be VFR. Additional cloud development later in the day may actually be near 6k feet, at the base of the deeper subsidence inversion. While some decrease in coverage of the clouds is possible with the loss of heating this evening, lowering of the subsidence inversion and a weakening of the flow may allow a persistent scattered to perhaps broken VFR cloud deck into Saturday morning. For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorm activity is anticipated throughout the TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon and evening. Low Saturday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......MV AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.