FXUS63 KDTX 241634 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1234 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally cool and dry weather this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... Diurnally enhanced clouds have rapidly developed late this morning within steepening low level lapse rates. For much of the area, initial clouds developed at bases in the MVFR range. As the boundary deepens through daytime heating, bases will largely be VFR. Additional cloud development later in the day may actually be near 6k feet, at the base of the deeper subsidence inversion. While some decrease in coverage of the clouds is possible with the loss of heating this evening, lowering of the subsidence inversion and a weakening of the flow may allow a persistent scattered to perhaps broken VFR cloud deck into Saturday morning. For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorm activity is anticipated throughout the TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon and evening. Low Saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 DISCUSSION... The longwave upper level trough over Eastern North America will begin to break down and advance east today. Still sufficient cold air (-3 C to -4 C at 850 MB) and cyclonic flow over Lower Michigan are still present to sustain partly to mostly cloudy skies. Isolated light showers can not be ruled out, given steep low level lapse rates, inversion heights of 6-8 kft and surface based capes reaching around 50 j/kg. Added isolated shower mention in and around Saginaw Bay. Heights rise toward the end day into tonight, as shortwave ridging ahead of the mid-upper level circulation along the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border arrives. This wave will open up and is on track to move through the area on Saturday. Dry mid levels and pronounced surface high pressure (1030 MB) suggests a dry passage. An upper level ridge is then expected to build through the Northern Great Lakes on Sunday and into northern Ontario/James Bay for Monday. An upper level trough/low over New England will extend west, producing a slight/low chance of showers by mid week over the the Central Great Lakes. Maximum temperatures in the 50s and min temps prominently in the 30s look to be prevalent this weekend into early next week. MARINE... Northwest flow subsides through the day as high pressure builds into the region. This allows gradient flow to relax, in turn easing wave heights below 4 feet by this evening. Remnant over-lake instability generates scattered shower activity once again today, but with a trend toward drier conditions tonight into the weekend as the high pressure center gains control. Dry and quieter marine conditions emerge for the weekend, with winds shifting to the east as the high drifts overhead. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......MV You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.