FXUS63 KDTX 241111

AFDDTX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

711 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Seasonally cool and dry weather this weekend into early next week.



&&



.AVIATION...



Deep upper trough axis eventually departs offering one final round 

of cyclonic forcing today. This promotes renewed clouds and periods 

of low-based VFR ceilings within the 4-7 kft AGL layer. WNW flow may 

advect enough moisture for a few light showers, provided low-grade 

instability materializes within the mid-levels. Any activity 

appears to be more likely over MBS and FNT. High pressure will 

steadily build into the terminal airspace leading to clearer 

conditions tonight into Saturday. Afternoon gusts as high as 15 

knots with flow trending toward calm overnight.



For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorm activity is anticipated 

throughout the TAF period.



DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... 



*  Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet for parts of the 

   daylight hours.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



DISCUSSION...



The longwave upper level trough over Eastern North America will 

begin to break down and advance east today. Still sufficient cold 

air (-3 C to -4 C at 850 MB) and cyclonic flow over Lower 

Michigan are still present to sustain partly to mostly cloudy skies. 

Isolated light showers can not be ruled out, given steep low 

level lapse rates, inversion heights of 6-8 kft and surface based 

capes reaching around 50 j/kg. Added isolated shower mention in and 

around Saginaw Bay. 



Heights rise toward the end day into tonight, as shortwave ridging 

ahead of the mid-upper level circulation along the southern 

Saskatchewan/Manitoba border arrives. This wave will open up and 

is on track to move through the area on Saturday.  Dry mid levels 

and pronounced surface high pressure (1030 MB) suggests a dry 

passage. 



An upper level ridge  is then expected to build through  the 

Northern Great Lakes on Sunday and into northern Ontario/James Bay 

for Monday. An upper level trough/low over New England will extend 

west, producing a slight/low chance of showers by mid week over the 

the Central Great Lakes. Maximum temperatures in the 50s and min 

temps prominently in the 30s look to be prevalent this weekend into 

early next week.



MARINE...



Northwest flow subsides through the day as high pressure builds into 

the region. This allows gradient flow to relax, in turn easing wave 

heights below 4 feet by this evening. Remnant over-lake instability 

generates scattered shower activity once again today, but with a 

trend toward drier conditions tonight into the weekend as the high 

pressure center gains control. Dry and quieter marine conditions 

emerge for the weekend, with winds shifting to the east as the high 

drifts overhead.



&&



.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

Lake Huron...None.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&



$$



AVIATION.....KGK

DISCUSSION...SF

MARINE.......MV





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