FXUS63 KDTX 240353 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1153 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally cool and dry weather will affect the area Friday into Monday. && .AVIATION... Cold cyclonic flow will continue to influence the aviation conditions over Southeast Michigan through the end of period Friday. Relatively moist conditions in the 1.5 to 6.0 kft agl layer will result in VFR stratocumulus. Winds will remain out of the northwest through Friday. For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorm activity is anticipated throughout the taf period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight. High Thursday during the daytime. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 DISCUSSION... Northwest flow aloft will persist across Lower Mi into Saturday with the broad upper low parked over eastern Canada. This will sustain seasonally cool temperatures to end the work week. Model soundings and latest RAP/NAM soundings indicate afternoon convective cloud depths will remain supportive of scattered showers through the rest of the afternoon. There has also been a report of small hail/graupel out of the higher intensity showers. Much like last night, there is expected to be some partial to perhaps full clearing during the night with the loss in diurnal mixing, with the clouds remaining more focused west and northwest of Se Mi within the Lake Mi moist plume. This will support current forecast mins into the 30s across the forecast area tonight. Steep low level lapse with continued cold air near the top of the mixed layer will allow another expansion of diurnal strato cu on Friday. Model soundings show appreciable warming in the 800 to 700mb layer, which will limit convective cloud depths, warranting a dry forecast. Highs will again only rise into the low 50s in light of the afternoon cloud cover and degree of cold air overhead. While the upper low will retreat eastward Saturday, there is reasonable model agreement in showing the mid level short wave now over the Alberta/Saskatchewan border moving across Lower Mi Saturday afternoon. This wave will advance across the region within a backdrop of low level drying and subtle warming. Probabilistic guidance is strongly supportive of a dry forecast Saturday. Model soundings, while indicative of some scattered diurnal cu, suggests mainly high based clouds with this system and very dry air residing in the mid levels. The slight thermal recovery will boost forecast highs into the low to mid 50s Saturday. Strengthening high pressure forecast across Quebec into the eastern Great Lakes will occur during the later half of the weekend as mid level ridging expands to the north of the Great Lakes. This will influence Se Mi Sunday into Monday, sustaining cool and dry weather. MARINE... Northwest gradient flow of 15-20 knots holds through mid-day Friday under continued influence from the departing low, now centered over Quebec. Highest waves are directed over the open waters, although could still see the edge of the swell clip the shoreline around the Thumb to keep Small Craft Advisories in place from Outer Saginaw Bay to Harbor Beach. Lake enhanced showers have shown a substantial increase in coverage over the past few hours, and will impact the local waters through the evening hours. Shower activity then wanes overnight into Friday as high pressure builds in from the Plains. Arrival of the high brings a more relaxed pressure gradient followed by a shift to easterly flow this weekend, alongside dry conditions. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...SC MARINE.......MV You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.