FXUS63 KDMX 190351 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1051 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms redevelop tonight along the front in east central to southeast Iowa. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds. - Patchy fog development possible Tuesday morning, mainly north. - Cooler and dry through the rest of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s. Even cooler by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area this morning dissipated quickly by midday. Cloud cover has also dissipated in many locations, and in areas along and south of the boundary this has made for another muggy afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Meanwhile, central to northern Iowa has remained in the low to mid 70s through the afternoon. Early this afternoon cumulus has grown along the boundary draped across east central in south central Iowa. Expect this to become more robust in the next few hours with diurnal heating. This will be the impetus for convective redevelopment through the evening. By 2 pm a few isolated showers were already beginning to develop on radar. Conditions across southeast Iowa where the boundary will traverse are nearly uncapped with MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg. Despite the deeply unstable conditions, shear is virtually nonexistent in this area which will inhibit more organized storm development. Expect that storms will likely develop quickly and then collapse, with these collapsing core producing gusty winds as the primary convective hazard. This will be confined to southeast portions of the area as the boundary continues to sink south and east this afternoon and evening. After convection clears the area this evening expect a quiet evening. By Tuesday morning patchy fog develop is possible across the area, especially across northern Iowa. The past several mornings have seen isolated fog development north of the boundary in cooler air and this is likely to continue on Tuesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week with be in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the 60s, feel more comfortable than this past weekend. A quick moving cool front Friday will bring another chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures further with highs in the 70s by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Fog remains the main focus for the overnight and into early Tuesday morning. Fog and there is stratus over parts of southeast Minnesota and into Wisconsin. Expect the fog to expand into northern Iowa early in the period with the main impacts at KMCW/KFOD/KALO with periods of IFR to possibly LIFR vsbys/cigs. Conditions will gradually improve Tuesday morning with VFR becoming more widespread in the afternoon. There are low chances that fog reaches KDSM with a better chance of minor vsby reductions at KOTM. Light winds through much of the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Donavon