FXUS63 KDMX 070324 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1024 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and breezy Monday with highs only in the upper 30s to 40s and winds out of the north gusting up to around 25 mph. - Gradually warming through the rest of the week and into next weekend. - Light rain chances (20-45%) return Wednesday-Thursday, though amounts remain light. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 After a cold start this morning with morning lows in the 20s, temperatures have warmed nicely into the 50s in most areas, as of early afternoon, under mostly clear skies with only a few higher clouds in the state. Conditions, especially north, have become a bit breezy with gusts up to around 25 mph, but these gusts will subside around sunset. This may lead to a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions north with the dry fuels and minimum relative humidity values in the 20-30% range so some caution is advised, especially with many fires noted on satellite today, though the bulk of these have been in areas central or south. Shortwave dropping from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region today into Monday will bring precipitation chances to states to the northeast or east of Iowa but will also drag a cold front with it that will cross through Iowa tonight into Monday morning resulting in colder temperatures Monday with highs only in the upper 30s to 40s. However, feel-like temperatures will generally only rise to be in the upper 20s to 30s with breezy winds out of the north 10- 20 mph, and gusts to around 25 mph making for a chilly start to the new work week. Although the winds relax into Monday night, another cold night is expected Monday night into Tuesday with lows in the 20s. Temperatures begin to rebound on Tuesday as a mid-level ridge moves across the region and mid-level flow gradually shifts to be out of the west to southwest through the day bringing the return of warm air advection. With a couple systems moving through overnight into Wednesday and again Thursday, the thermal ridge arrival has slowed delaying the return of 70s to later in the weekend but a gradually warming trend is still expected through the week as highs reach into the 50s Tuesday, 50-60s Wednesday-Thursday, and 60s Friday-Saturday. With the aforementioned systems, first up overnight into Wednesday as a low pressure approaches and crosses through southern Iowa shower chances (20-40%) return to the forecast. The better forcing is overnight into Wednesday morning but moisture remains a limiting factor keeping any rain amounts light and activity light scattered showers or sprinkles. Quick on the heels of the first system, another low drops south out of the Northern Plains overnight into Thursday. Somewhat similar rain chances of 20-35% accompany this system with moisture still limited overall keeping rain amounts low and coverage scattered. Thus, although there are some precipitation chances in the forecast through mid-week, impacts will remain pretty minimal, though an isolated rumble of thunder could be possible either afternoon in especially the south. High pressure moves across on Friday with a building upper ridge into the weekend allowing the already mentioned warming temperatures be the feature to end the week. Some precipitation chances could return towards the end of next weekend, but details remain limited at this time range. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Cold front is moving into northern Iowa early in the period and will continue to move south across the state overnight. Gusty northwest/north winds will occur behind the boundary with some guststo near 25 kts possible. The mixed layer winds will diminish gradually during the afternoon then will diminish further by Monday evening as mixing ends. Very few clouds are associated with and behind the boundary and will continue the VFR through the period. There is an MVFR stratus well upstream over Ontario that is not anticipated to have an impact over Iowa. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...Donavon