FXUS63 KDMX 041833 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 133 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front moving across Iowa today. Thunderstorms expected far south into MO late afternoon, then light showers across central and southern Iowa overnight into Tuesday morning. - Cooler the next few days with highs in the 60s. Overnight lows in the 30s to 40s may result in frost concerns, mainly Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and Wednesday night/Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 A cold front is pushing across Iowa today and will be the focus for weather impacts over the next 24 hours. So far today the front has made it approximately halfway across the state, moving northwest to southeast. Temperatures in central and southern Iowa ahead of the front are in the upper 70s to low 80s while area behind the front have been in the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile a plume of gulf moisture is pushing north. This will intersect with the cold front as it continues to sink south. Based on the speed of the front today and current placement, expect that initiation along the front will occur in far southeast Iowa and quickly pushing outside the area late this afternoon. Gusty winds are the primary hazard with storms that do develop, given very dry low levels with inverst-v soundings. Deep mixing ahead of initiation has allowed for gusts of 25-35 mph this afternoon. Should the front slow down and a more robust cell develop in the area as better moisture is allowed a bit further north, that cell could also develop hail. Again, based on the timing of the front, expect that most severe activity will be southeast of the area this evening. The secondary front with cooler air pushes into the area this evening and overnight. This will bring a period of post-frontal showers to the area. These are already seen on satellite and radar across South Dakota into Minnesota. Scattered light showers will pass across northern Iowa this evening, becoming more widespread in central to southern Iowa overnight, lingering south through Tuesday morning. Much cooler air settles across the area Tuesday with highs in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 With much colder air in place the threat for frost/freeze is back through the middle of this week. Tuesday night-Wednesday morning (low 30s north) and Wednesday night-Thursday morning (widespread mid 30s) are the coldest, though both nights still have complications from cloud cover. As the main trough axis starts to shift east late week warmer air will shift into the area with mid 60s returning Thursday and Friday. A quick moving and rather weak embedded shortwave may try to sneak across the area Thursday or Friday bringing light rain to the area, however there are timing differences at this time amongst EC/GEFS guidance that make refining the timeframe a challenge. A more robust trough looks to move across the midwest Sunday into Monday and will provide the next window for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals throughout this TAF period, with gusty winds, wind shifts and precipitation chances expected overnight into tomorrow. A cold front is going to pass through Iowa this afternoon through the evening, causing a wind shift at all terminals by sunset. Winds will shift from being southwesterly ahead of the front to northwesterly behind the front. Wind gusts of 25-30kts are possible through sunset, though gusts could linger with any showers that form. At OTM, PROB30 mentions of thunderstorms were introduced as the front makes it to southern Iowa with low confidence in the northern coverage of thunderstorms. Otherwise, behind the front a band of showers is expected to form across central Iowa. Timing and the exact location of where the showers form leads to PROB30s being introduced at FOD and ALO, while more certainty leads to prevailing showers at DSM and OTM tonight through early Tuesday morning. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Hagenhoff/Rotter