FXUS63 KDMX 032336

AFDDMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

536 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Chance in precipitation early Wednesday has decreased.



- Warmer, above average highs featured for much of the forecast.



- Precipitation trends for Sunday are worth monitoring in the

  coming days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Upper level ridging continued to build over the western CONUS today 

which will deliver warmer weather in the near future. Weak 

convergence was enough to generate some light radar returns in Sioux 

Falls's area, but will contend with dry near-surface air once it 

arrives in Iowa. Some flakes could fly in the far west, but will be 

inconsequential. Condensation pressure deficits remain low just

to the west of the area tonight into Wednesday morning, but 

enough dry air remains in Iowa that confidence in precipitation 

has decreased for tomorrow. The highest chances are near sunrise

for places like Estherville where some flurries could fall.



The thermal ridge starts coming into the state Wednesday and push 

highs into the 40s for much of the area (save for the snowpack areas 

in the northeast). A shortwave will drop along the northwest flow 

Thursday evening and bring with it a strong push of CAA behind a 

boundary. Some thermal recovery will occur in southern Iowa where 

highs will reach 40 degrees again. The bigger story is the winds. 

Subsidence will pair with 45kt+ winds aloft and mix these winds 

down, including before sunrise due to CAA establishing mixing. The 

depth of mixing, and thus the upper bounds of wind gusts, remain in 

question. Ridging will enforce its presence more in the weekend 

along with evidence of another disturbance arriving sometime on 

Sunday. 50 degree temperatures are possible into early next week and 

a closed low in the desert SW will be worth monitoring.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Low clouds will spread slowly into the area overnight and

Wednesday. Upstream observations indicate patchy MVFR ceilings

in the FL020-030 range, but more widespread VFR above FL030.

Forecast soundings illustrate a general lowering trend during

the TAF period however, and believe prevailing MVFR will reach

at least FOD and MCW by late tonight/early Wednesday so have

included that in the TAFs. At the other three terminals

confidence is lower and have maintained VFR expectations, but

will reassess this for the 06Z issuance.



&&



.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Jimenez

AVIATION...Lee