FXUS63 KDMX 022344 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 544 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow chances (up to 20%) across Iowa tonight into Tuesday morning. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation possible. - Dry conditions Tuesday and beyond with temperatures warming into the 40s by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Cloud cover has been persistent across much of the central to southwest portions of Iowa today, due to low stratus associated with an incoming shortwave and high cloud streaming in from a surface low to the southwest. The embedded shortwave has our attention as it rotates south across the area this evening through Tuesday morning. This currently sits across South Dakota into Minnesota where radar notes light precipitation occurring. As the wave sinks south into Iowa it loses strength with very modest lift and will battle dry air. Model cross sections and soundings indicate a shallow layer of saturation through the dendritic growth zone with a substantial wedge of dry air below. This will limit accumulations and have kept this to around a tenth or so across the area. With dry air in place there are periods where the DGZ de-saturates, resulting in a loss of ice introduction. There are scenarios where this would result in light freezing drizzle, however with dry air in place through the rest of the column the more likely scenario is that precipitation would end completely rather than transition from snow to freezing drizzle. This wave will progress to southern Iowa by Tuesday morning, sinking south of the area by mid morning. High pressure keeps the area dry and cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 20s across the area. Another weak embedded shortwave rotates across the area on Wednesday, though at this time precipitation looks to remain east of the area. The western US thermal ridge then begins to shift into the central US for the middle of the week, kicking off a warming trend with 850 mb temperatures in the +5 to +7 C range. Temperatures this week peak Thursday with 40s across much of the state as southwest Iowa makes a run at 50 degrees. A cold front pushes across Iowa Friday, sending highs back to the 30s. Temperatures begin a slow rebound back through the 30s to 40s this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 A strip of MVFR stratus around 1500 to 2000 ft still remains draped from northwest to southeast Iowa, mostly impacting KDSM and KOTM. Recent observations suggest this band is eroding, but have kept MVFR impacts at both sites for at least a few hours and will continue to monitor trends. Snow/flurries have developed over northern Iowa early this evening, although recent observations have been sporadic. Some locations north of Iowa/Minnesota border are reporting a heavier snow with visibilities around and under a mile, while areas farther south and west into Iowa are experiencing more dry air and reporting only light snow/flurries with visibilities over 6 miles. Given this have introduced PROB30 groups at KMCW and KFOD to account for this snow potential, with most concern at KMCW in proximity to the better snow rates. Will be monitoring trends closely over the next few hours and amend TAFs should confidence increase for more significant impacts at either site. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Dodson