FXUS63 KDLH 242353 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 653 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A quick-moving Clipper system will bring a chance for light rain this evening into tonight, mainly around the Brainerd Lakes to I-35 corridor. - Dry and warm conditions expected this weekend into early next week. - Two rounds of precipitation will be possible mid to late next week. The first chance will be on Tuesday into Wednesday morning and the second chance will be on Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 After a chilly start this morning with low temperatures in the teens to 20s, conditions as of early this afternoon have been seasonably pleasant with temps in the mid 40s to low 50s and mostly clear skies. Expect cloud cover to increase this evening into tonight as a quick-moving shortwave propagates through the CWA. Dynamic forcing associated with this Clipper system is quite favorable, which would be supportive of higher precipitation rates. However, the limiting factors for heavier precipitation amounts in the CWA will be PWAT of 0.7" and a layer of drier air in the low-levels appearing in hi-res model soundings reducing the amount of QPF. Highest rainfall amounts will be around the Brainerd Lakes to the I-35 corridor with amounts around the 0.05-0.2" range. Locally higher amounts exceeding 0.25" will be possible, but the potential is low at a 20% chance. Temperatures tonight will be warmer compared to this morning, especially in the areas that will be seeing light rain from the Clipper, with lows ranging from around 30 in the Arrowhead and north- central WI to around 40 degrees in north-central MN. Conditions won't be rancid this weekend as ridging occurs over the upper Great Lakes region, keeping things dry. Temperatures this weekend will likely be unseasonably warm with high temps in the 50s to near 60 degrees, especially on Sunday. For context, normal high temps this time of year are around the upper 40s to 50 degrees. The next system of interest arrives to the Upper Midwest late Monday as a deep trough moves west into the region. Global guidance suggests that this deep trough will likely develop an area of cutoff low pressure on Tuesday, which will be moving into the lower Mississippi River Valley. In our region, a band of precipitation will be centered around the Red River Valley and could impact western portions of the CWA. However, a lobe of vorticity will likely be ejected from a second cutoff low over New England and retrograde into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This retrograding lobe of vorticity aloft is likely to bring a dry layer into the CWA, which could greatly limit any rain chances on Tuesday. Still maintaining a chance of rain in the forecast for now, but this could trend drier as we get closer to Tuesday. In the extended forecast, global models show the potential for additional precipitation late next week on Thursday and Friday. While there are indications of precipitation, there is high disagreement regarding timing and location. Therefore, confidence is low at this time in regards to precipitation type, probability of occurrence, and timing. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A weak shortwave trough is bringing an area of light rain showers through BRD at the moment, and it may clip DLH/HIB and pass through HYR later this evening. Visibilities are expected to remain VFR as intensity remains light to perhaps briefly moderate. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR as well. A period of LLWS is possible at INL tonight as a low level jet strengthens behind the departing trough. On Saturday, VFR conditions at all terminals with some occasional blustery southwinds gusting up to 15 to 20 kt. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 South to southeast winds are expected this afternoon through Saturday night with winds around 10 knots or less and gusts up to 15 knots. A Clipper System moves through central Minnesota tonight, but impacts to western Lake Superior are not expected outside of a slight chance for a light shower. There is the potential for stronger southeast winds that could lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions late Sunday into early next week. Otherwise, expect conditions for much of this weekend to be fairly benign. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Unruh AVIATION...JDS MARINE...Unruh