FXUS63 KDLH 241728 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cold morning, temperatures warm through the weekend, with highs in the 50s Saturday through Monday. - A quick hitting clipper could bring a few showers Friday night into Saturday morning. - Better rain chances arrive early next week, although latest model trends have leaned toward a drier forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Elongated surface high pressure is centered over the Northland this morning with temperatures in the 20s areawide, and few upper teens in the typically cooler spots. Localized freezing fog has formed in valleys and low spots, with visibilities below 1 miles around the Brainerd Lakes region and across central St. Louis County. Any fog will lift this morning with sunrise. The surface high shifts to the east today, starting a period of low level southerly flow and warm advection. Temperatures will slowly warm through the weekend, with highs in the 50s Saturday through Monday. Expect one more night with lows near freezing across the Arrowhead and portions of northwest Wisconsin tonight into Saturday morning. Weekend lows will be in the mid 30s and 40s. A quick hitting clipper will cross the area tonight into Saturday. There should be enough moisture for a few showers, mainly south of US-2, but rainfall totals should be limited to a couple tenths of an inch, at the most. Upper level ridging builds into the area behind the clipper for the rest of the weekend, as broad troughing crosses the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low rotates over New England. Latest model trends have leaned toward a slower moisture return to the Northland ahead of the approaching trough, partly due to the retrograding nature of the New England low and it pushing drier air back westward over the Great Lakes. This keeps the main moisture transport from the south and southwest to our west. The low level convergent zone and moisture axis could sit over the Brainerd Lakes area Monday into Tuesday, with the rest of the Northland remaining dry. The upper level dynamics associated with the trough to our west shear out to our south and southeast, taking much of the forcing and moisture with it toward the Ohio River Valley, as the New England low maintains a presence over southeast Canada. Broad troughing then amplifies over much of the eastern CONUS by midweek. Maintained chance pops for much of the Northland for each next week, but lowered them slightly. Definitely a low confidence forecast given model uncertainty and lack of consistency, and can see the forecast trending more dry with future forecasts. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A fast-moving clipper system will be moving through the area this evening into tonight, bringing a chance for VFR rain showers. Most of the moisture associated with this system will be south of the area, but KBRD and KHYR could still see a period rain this evening into tonight. Cigs will likely remain VFR through the period with southeast winds occasionally becoming gusty. Drier air filtering in following the clipper system is anticipated to inhibit fog development tonight into early Saturday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Variable winds at 10 knots or less today as high pressure moves overhead. After a quick Alberta Clipper moves through the area tonight into Saturday, winds will turn southerly at 5 to 10 kts and gusts of 10 to 15 knots. There is some potential for stronger winds that could lead to hazardous conditions for smaller craft late Sunday into early next week. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HA AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...HA