FXUS63 KDLH 210542 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1242 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A messy wintry system will move through tonight through Saturday. A trace to one inch of snow is expected, highest near Grand Portage. - A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and ice pellets late tonight into Saturday night for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could leave a light ice glaze, leading to hazardous morning driving conditions. - A colder air mass arrives Sunday, followed by an active pattern of clippers bringing more mixed precipitation chances early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 A fast moving clipper system is set to dive southeast across the area late tonight through Saturday. This will bring a quick hit of mixed precipitation from north to south. Forecast models have trended notably warmer with this system. Warm air has pushed further north, which has drastically lowered our expected snowfall totals compared to previous forecasts. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing for a longer duration before eventually lowering Saturday night. Because of this, we anticipate a longer period of rain before the precipitation switches over to a wintry mix and eventually snow. A persistent warm layer of air aloft will complicate precipitation types tonight and Saturday. As surface temperatures fall to near or just below freezing overnight, particularly across the Arrowhead, we expect to see rain transition to freezing rain and ice pellets. Once the colder air finally scours out the warm nose, precipitation will change to snow. However, a dry pocket of air in the mid levels could lead to a period of freezing drizzle in northwest Wisconsin by early Sunday morning. Overall precipitation amounts will be very light. Expect a tenth of an inch or less of liquid for the Iron Range, the Arrowhead, and northwest Wisconsin. Snow accumulations will generally be a trace, with up to an inch possible near Grand Portage. A light glaze of ice is also expected wherever freezing rain occurs. By Sunday, a relatively colder Canadian high pressure system will settle into the region, keeping high temperatures at forty degrees or lower. This chill will be short lived, as a brief warm up arrives for Monday and Tuesday, allowing temperatures in our southern zones to climb back into the upper forties. The active weather pattern will continue into next week with a parade of clippers. The first will arrive Monday night along a cold front, quickly followed by another system early Wednesday with warm air advection once again. Both of these clippers will bring additional chances for light, mixed wintry precipitation to the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 VFR conditions are occurring early this morning preceding an approaching warm front and associated low pressure. A wintry mix is expected to begin later this morning in far northern MN as a low- level layer of dry air saturates. As temps warm above freezing, wintry mix will be transitioning to rain, departing by the mid afternoon. The main terminal affected by this warm front will be KINL, with KHIB and KDLH potentially seeing precipitation as well. A cold front arrives late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a wind shift to the northwest and lower cigs. Another round of wintry mix along this cold front will be possible this evening into tonight. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Quiet conditions on western Lake Superior this afternoon will deteriorate this weekend as a fast moving low pressure system crosses the region. East to northeast winds will increase Saturday and into Sunday, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots across most nearshore zones and waves building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight Saturday. The outer Apostle Islands and the waters off Saxon Harbor could see waves building to 4 to 8 feet. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the North Shore and around and east of the Bayfield Peninsula. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...KML