FXUS63 KDLH 190838 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Foggy morning with some drizzle through the day. - High pressure and drier conditions build into the area for Tuesday into Thursday morning with warmer temperatures. - A cold front comes through late Thursday through Friday and will bring a chance for showers and storms. Some storms may be strong to severe. - Behind the front expect much cooler temperates for the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Current Conditions/Today: Satellite and radar this morning show a decaying meso vortex moving across central MN. We also have an expansive stratus deck across the Northland with visibilities being greatly reduced at the surface due to dense fog. The Fog Advisory has been expanded to include portions of the Brainerd Lakes Region, the Arrowhead and Douglas county. Fog may linger a little longer than usual due to the overall depth of the cloud with most guidance clearing it out by mid morning. Mostly cloudy conditions are expected to persist through the day. The latest RAP model also shows a few ripples in the upper level pattern behind the shortwave moving through this morning. With the atmospheric moisture profile being saturated in the lower levels and dry aloft we may see some areas of drizzle through the day. Tonight/Tomorrow: Lingering low level moisture and light surface winds may lead to another round of fog developing overnight and into tomorrow morning. Surface high pressure moves in tomorrow as a strong anticyclone persists over the four corners. Ridging aloft will also move overhead across the region as we settle into a quiet period. Temperatures will continue to warm with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Thursday - Friday: Surface high pressure will begin to depart the region with widespread 80s expected across the Northland. A cold front inbound from the Canadian Prairies will bring precipitation chances back into the forecast. Timing of the front impacting the Northland looks to be in the late afternoon and evening hours. A small corridor of increased instability out ahead of the boundary paired with some stronger bulk shear may lead to strong to severe storms. For now the SPC has a marginal (threat level 1 out of 5) from Koochiching down through Cass County. Friday will see the continued travels of the cold front as it slides southeast. Showers and storm chances will continue with NW WI possibly being under the gun for strong to severe storms by the afternoon and evening hours. This is largely dependent on how quickly the front crosses the Northland but the CSU ML severe probs highlight at least a small chance across all of NW WI. Weekend: Much cooler weather filters in from the northwest for the weekend with highs in 60s. A bit unseasonable for this time of year, in fact, that is about 10F below normal for high temperatures. Cyclonic flow aloft mixed with the moisture in place may lead to diurnally driven showers in the afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 An expansive stratus deck engulfs all of the Northland this evening with ceilings down in the LIFR category. Dense fog is also expanding leading to widespread VLIFR conditions. Models are beginning to hold onto the fog signal a little later with each run leading to dispersion by late morning. Ceilings will also be slow to improve with VFR conditions likely not expected until the afternoon. Weak forcing over the region may lead to areas of drizzle as well. Tonight could introduce another stratus deck with fog. The latest guidance has a 50% chance of MVFR ceilings developing over northern MN and a 70% chance for NW WI. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Areas of dense fog will be possible this morning before largely clearing by 9AM. Light winds across the lake the next couple days as surface high pressure moves over the Northland. Can't rule out another batch of fog for tonight into tomorrow morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012- 019>021-025-033>037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt