FXUS63 KDLH 071728 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1228 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - South Shore lake effect this morning will diminish today then may increase a bit tonight before ending for good Tuesday. - Colder today and Tuesday then warming into late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Today into Tuesday: A potent shortwave was dropping south through the Northland and that with lake processes were causing robust snow showers in parts of northwest Wisconsin early this morning. The wave will continue south then northerly winds will continue with cold temperatures. 850MB temperatures will drop into the teens below zero. The lake effect snow showers will diminish in both intensity and coverage this morning as drier air moves in and with loss of the stronger forcing with the exiting wave. We continue the Winter Advisory through 10 AM. There may be some cumulus that forms over far northeast Minnesota this afternoon which may result in some flurries so we added a mention there. Highs today will be in the upper twenties to mid- thirties. There may be an increase in snow showers in the snow belt of Ashland/Iron Counties tonight with the cold airmass over the region and persistent northerly winds. However, dry air and little larger scale lift will keep any snow showers light. We expect additional daytime and Monday night accumulations of an inch or less. High pressure moving through will cause light winds and mostly clear skies for much of the Northland and we expect nearly ideal radiational cooling. We continue to forecast lows on the cold side of guidance, blending in NBM 10th percentile. This results in lows from zero to 5 above from the Arrowhead and Borderlands area to the teens in the Brainerd Lakes to St. Croix River Valley. Tuesday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies with highs from the mid-thirties to mid-forties. Wednesday-Thursday: A shortwave and low pressure system will bring chances for precipitation into the region Wednesday into Thursday. These features are not particularly strong and there remains a fair amount of uncertainty on the track and see in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance so predictability isn't very high. We are carrying 20-30% POPs for now. Precipitation type will be or become mainly light rain during the day with boundary layer conditions dominating in determining the type but overnight and morning periods will feature light snow or a wintry mix. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. Friday-Saturday: An upper ridge to the west will slide east with most seeing dry conditions and warming temperatures. We expect highs in the fifties for most Friday and upper fifties to mid-sixties on Saturday. Lakeside areas will be cooler, especially Saturday with colder off lake winds expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR conditions expected for the 24 hour period. Scattered cloud cover near HYR will dissipate as dry air cuts off moisture being advected from Lake Superior. Gusty winds will decrease throughout the day as a high pressure approaches, and light and variable winds will continue into tomorrow. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Strong northerly winds this morning will decrease through the day. A few gale force gusts will occur early, mainly along the South Shore and the Outer Apostle Islands area. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this morning and into this afternoon for portions of the South Shore. Northerly winds will continue tonight at or less than 15 knots with winds becoming east or southeast Tuesday into Tuesday night, again at or less than 15knots. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ147- 148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...KML MARINE...Melde