FXUS63 KDLH 071138

AFDDLH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Duluth MN

638 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- South Shore lake effect this morning will diminish today then

  may increase a bit tonight before ending for good Tuesday.



- Colder today and Tuesday then warming into late week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Today into Tuesday:



A potent shortwave was dropping south through the Northland and

that with lake processes were causing robust snow showers in

parts of northwest Wisconsin early this morning. The wave will

continue south then northerly winds will continue with cold

temperatures. 850MB temperatures will drop into the teens below

zero. The lake effect snow showers will diminish in both

intensity and coverage this morning as drier air moves in and

with loss of the stronger forcing with the exiting wave. We 

continue the Winter Advisory through 10 AM. There may be some 

cumulus that forms over far northeast Minnesota this afternoon 

which may result in some flurries so we added a mention there. 

Highs today will be in the upper twenties to mid- thirties. 



There may be an increase in snow showers in the snow belt of

Ashland/Iron Counties tonight with the cold airmass over the

region and persistent northerly winds. However, dry air and

little larger scale lift will keep any snow showers light. We

expect additional daytime and Monday night accumulations of an 

inch or less. 



High pressure moving through will cause light winds and mostly 

clear skies for much of the Northland and we expect nearly ideal

radiational cooling. We continue to forecast lows on the cold 

side of guidance, blending in NBM 10th percentile. This results 

in lows from zero to 5 above from the Arrowhead and Borderlands 

area to the teens in the Brainerd Lakes to St. Croix River 

Valley. 



Tuesday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies with highs

from the mid-thirties to mid-forties.



Wednesday-Thursday:



A shortwave and low pressure system will bring chances for

precipitation into the region Wednesday into Thursday. These

features are not particularly strong and there remains a fair

amount of uncertainty on the track and see in both the

deterministic and ensemble guidance so predictability isn't 

very high. We are carrying 20-30% POPs for now. Precipitation 

type will be or become mainly light rain during the day with 

boundary layer conditions dominating in determining the type but

overnight and morning periods will feature light snow or a 

wintry mix. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light.



Friday-Saturday:



An upper ridge to the west will slide east with most seeing dry

conditions and warming temperatures. We expect highs in the

fifties for most Friday and upper fifties to mid-sixties on

Saturday. Lakeside areas will be cooler, especially Saturday with

colder off lake winds expected.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Most of the Northland was under VFR conditions. However, lake

processes were causing MVFR ceilings over portions of the

northwest Wisconsin along with some light snow showers/flurries.

The lake clouds/snow showers will diminish through the day with

the clouds lingering longest. Lake clouds/snow showers may

return tonight to parts of northwest Wisconsin. A second area of

MVFR or low VFR clouds were moving south toward the Arrowhead.

These clouds are expected to remain out KHIB. High pressure and

drier air will scour most of the clouds out tonight.



&&



.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Strong northerly winds this morning will decrease through the

day. A few gale force gusts will occur early, mainly along the

South Shore and the Outer Apostle Islands area. Small CraftAdvisories remain in effect this morning and into this afternoon

for portions of the South Shore.



Northerly winds will continue tonight at or less than 15 knots

with winds becoming east or southeast Tuesday into Tuesday night,

again at or less than 15 knots.



For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area

Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.



&&



.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for 

     WIZ004.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for LSZ121-145-146.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for 

     LSZ140>144.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ147-

     148-150.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Melde

AVIATION...Melde

MARINE...Melde