FXUS63 KDDC 251034 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 534 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense Fog Advisory in effect until Noon Saturday (CDT) for widespread one quarter mile or less visibility. - Greatest chance for 1/2" or greater rainfall totals (thru 7 PM Saturday) southeast of a Meade to Dodge City to Great Bend line (~50% Chance) - Seasonal temperatures and fairly quiet weather the upcoming workweek. Slight chances of precipitation confined to the northeastern counties. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the whole CWA except Kiowa, Comanche, Barber, Pratt, and Stafford counties until noon Saturday. These counties are excluded because widespread light showers are ongoing and forecast to continue over the next few hours. Syracuse, Elkhart, Dodge City and Garden City have already reached 1/2 mile visibilities. In general, visibilities are expected to drop, but some areas may remain fairly clear with areas of very dense fog. Relief of the fog will begin around 10 am CDT although it may take a few hours to have visibilities recover. Ensembles have regions east of highway 283 holding at 2-4 mile visibilities throughout the day with the precipitation and mist potential. Previous precipitation forecasts continue to be on track. The surface low continues to move parallel of the OK/KS border just south. CAMs and ensembles have wrap around precipitation, or the "comma head", into the day on Saturday. Most of the precipitation is still expected to be in the southeastern counties and still have the best chance of the heaviest rain. Overall the amounts have decreased somewhat based on how dry Thursday night and Friday morning ended up being. Still the heaviest rain areas have ensemble totals over an inch. In corroboration with this, the WPC has issued a marginal risk for an excessive rainfall outlook. This translates as about a 5-15% chance for an area in those counties to see flash flood like conditions. With a slightly drier than expected outcome unfolding, any flooding is expected to be marginal, localized, and contained within flood prone regions. As the low pressure system moves into eastern Oklahoma, precipitation will wrap up and end late Saturday night. The next 7 days will primarily see highs in the 50s/60s, a few degrees cooler than normal but still seasonal temperatures. The next wave is expected where the northern and northeastern counties could see some more precipitation. Ensembles have continued to be consistent in this signal building confidence. With that said, amounts are expected to be very low (<0.10") if at all. Beyond this period, the weather is forecast to be exceptionally dry and quiet. Winds will mostly be light enough to quell fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 534 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Low stratus and fog continue to dominate all terminals with light showers. As a result low ceilings and lowered visibilities plague most of SW Kansas. CAMs have the rain dissipating and visibilities recovering around 18Z. Ensembles keep the lower cloud cover lasting through the TAF period. Some uncertainty remains on the exact timing on the rain ending and the visibilities recovering so amendments may be needed. Regardless of the details of the timings, lowered flight conditions are expected at all terminals for nearly the entire period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today for KSZ030- 031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>088. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...KBJ