FXUS63 KDDC 240847

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

347 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Weak, scattered showers are currently along the periphery of 

  the forecast area.



- Another wave of steadier, widespread light to moderate rain 

  expected late Friday Night through early Saturday afternoon.



- There is a greater than 50% chance of event total rainfall

  greater than 1" through Saturday to the east of roughly

  Ashland to Larned line.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Light scattered showers are currently streaked across portions of SW 

Kansas. The majority of the convection has avoided the forecast area 

either in the panhandles or east of the CWA. Total amounts through 

the storm system's lifespan is now forecast to be lower based on the 

lack of the precipitation throughout the onset of the pattern. Much 

of the synoptic pattern continues to be on track. The upper-level 

low is now situated just east the Four Corners. The surface low 

pressure system is in northeastern NM and is expected to track along 

the KS/OK border into Friday.



The overall total rain amounts have continued to drop off 

significantly. Current CAM runs, particularly the HRRR, RAP, and 

NAMNST, hold a lot of discrepancies. Especially where the next round 

of scatter showers develop at and when. However, they seem to all 

agree on a much drier solution overall. Significant convection 

development seems confined to the southern and southeastern portion 

of the CWA. The timing of this seems to be primarily later on Friday 

as the surface low moves closer and across the Oklahoma panhandle. 

Ensemble overall trends remain unchanged with the heaviest totals, 

and the best chance to receive over and inch, in the southeastern 

counties. If training convection develops over a precise area, 

amounts exceeding 2" is possible. Ensembles have Barber county at 

around a 40% chance to reach the 2" threshold. The best chance for 

the heaviest rain still appears to be from late Friday afternoon 

into the Saturday overnight. Regardless, all of this convection 

continues to be without a favorable environment for severe weather. 

NAMNST forecast soundings continue to have shear below 1000 J/kg and 

shear below 30 KTs. Even with some upper-level support, the 

ingredients present are not expected to allow convection to approach 

severe thresholds. 



Highs on Friday kick off a stretch of highs in the 60s this week. 

With shower development into Friday, low stratus is expected to 

develop and move westward Friday. The forecast continues to be 

benign outside of the development of showers. Severe weather is not 

expected and a wetter pattern will keep fire weather risk at bay. 

Temperatures will stay around average leaning a couple degrees 

cooler. Ensembles continue to depict another wave bringing 

precipitation chances to the north/northeast portion of the forecast 

area. Details are still hazy with the current pattern's ejection, 

but that is the next period of interest. Beyond this, ensembles have 

a much drier period with <5% rain chances through the rest of the 

forecast period from ensembles. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



Showers that were previously expected to impact all terminals 

has moved north and west of them. Light scattered showers are 

possible through the entire period, but disagreement across the 

models and ensembles put pause on declaring exactly where and 

when these showers are expected. Regardless of rain, all 

terminals are expected to see lowered flight conditions to IFR 

or lower as low level stratus builds westward starting around 

8Z. This stratus is forecast to linger for the entire period 

once it builds up as it may be fairly patchy early on in thedevelopment.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...KBJ

AVIATION...KBJ